Exploring NYC, Part II

I'll explain in a moment why I'm presenting this screen shot from Jack Eichenbaum's "Geography of New York City" website, geognyc.com, which I encourage anyone interested in getting to know NYC better to check out. (You can click on it to enlarge it for enhanced readability.)

by Ken

And when I say "a unique tour opportunity," I mean a unique tour opportunity. If you can't wait to find out about it, you can scroll down straightaway to "THE EXCITING OPPORTUNITY."

In writing sketpically last night about the "miraculous" transformation of Times Square, which NEA Chariman Rocco Landesman (who as head of the Jujamcyn Broadway theater chain played an active role in that transformation) explained in his keynote speech at the Municipal Art Society's annual meeting this week he is promoting as a model for cities all over the country seeking major new development, I mentioned that I had joined the MAS for its walking tours. Tonight I want to talk about that a little more, and in the process clue you in to this exciting upcoming opportunity, which may not be quite once-in-a-lifetime but is so exciting, at least to me, that I want to try to spread the word to people who would jump at it if only they knew about it.

(Again, if you want to skip the blather and get straight to "the exciting opportunity," feel free to scroll down to "THE EXCITING OPPORTUNITY." I won't take it personally. Well, that's not quite true. I suppose I take everything personally, but that amounts to the same thing.)

I also mentioned last night that I had two MAS tours booked for this weekend, and by coincidence, for those who believe in coincidence more than I do, today's happened to offer which are surprisingly inexpensive, especially for members (typically the two-hour tours are $10 for members, $15 for nonmembers; longer ones -- including several of the new ones I signed up for yesterday -- are naturally more expensive, but not much), and surprisingly (at least to me) helpful in enabling you to look at even parts of the city you may have thought you knew pretty well and begin to see them through the eyes of someone who has better, smarter ways of looking at them.

I suppose major cities have always had walking tours of a sort, but the kind of historical-mindedness that has made them flourish seems to me a phenomenon of recent decades. And for me the whole thing is brand-new. I don't know why I waited this long to avail myself of the opportunities; on any given weekend day there seem to be dozens of them around the five boroughs, and for that matter stretching into the whole metropolitan area. I guess I've done so much tramping around at least portions of the city over the decades I've lived here that I mistakenly imagined I didn't need that kind of "prompting." In fact, even with all that tramping, there are large swaths of the city that are pretty much terra incognata to me, and as I just said, I've learned as much touring parts of the city I thought I knew pretty well.

Times Square, to pick a random example. Last night I described the sense of aloneness feeling that I was the only one at the annual meeting of the MAS who wasn't so absolutely certain that the miraculous rebirth of Times Square over the last couple of decades is miraculous but harbored the whisper of a doubt that it's even a good thing for the vitality of the city. I'm sure I was exaggerating. It felt that way, especially when that audience member challenged the two-person panel on the Times Square rebirth for failing to give enough credit to Disney. For some of us the mind-numbing blandness and mush of Disney is an all too apt symbol for, well, the mind-numbing blanndess and mush of the "revitalized" Times Square, which seems to exist to shake fistfuls of moolah out of folks who, in fairness, seem only too eager to spend it, on crappy blockbuster musical entertainments, wildly overpriced schlock merchandise, and wildly overpriced schlock food.

It might be stressed that what Chairman Rocco, an honorable man who seems to genuinely believe in his vision of using the arts as the basis for economic redevelopment, understands by "arts" does seem to place a premium on crappy blockbuster musical entertainments. There actually are other visions of urban life, cultural life, and urban cultural life. The problem is that while there are a lot of people out there who might support their efforts, they're scattered and hard to find, whereas the audience for what Chairman Rocco understands by "arts" seems to be out there in abundance just waiting to be told what to do to be officially "entertained."

My MAS tour today put me squarely in contact with the other end of the arts spectrum. It was a "tour" of the East Village block of East Fourth Street between the Bowery and Second Avenue which has become the city's second-only designated "cultural district" (and the only one in Manhattan; the other is in Brooklyn, around the Brooklyn Academy of Music, of which our guide for this tour, Lawrence Frommer, will be leading an MAS tour on June 4), a block on which numerous shoestring arts organizations had taken root, and by coincidence (again?) the block on which one of the city's most storied theater enterprises, the late Ellen Stewart's LaMama E.T.C., found its enduring home.

It was a thrill to encounter the passion and energy of the director of FAB (Fourth Arts Block), the nonprofit organization founded in 2001 to give these for the East 4th Street Cultural District, who joined us on the tour, and also introduced us to some of the people working on that block. Tamara and her associates play all the angles, working with government and funding organizations as well as community businesses to help sustain and promote the life and activities of the district arts organizations, and indeed organizations outside the immediate district with which FAB networks. The kind of art they promote clearly isn't for the mass audience to which shows like Spider-Man: Get Off My Lawn are aimed, but they're essential to the vitality of city life, and indeed make the city a vastly more livable place.


THE EXCITING OPPORTUNITY: AN ALL-DAY PILGRIMAGE
ON THE NO. 1 TRAIN, NYC'S INTERNATIONAL LIFELINE

What got me started on this whole walking-tour thing was a bunch of the New York Transit Museum's tours, including an especially illuminating one about the engine for economic development created by transit "nodes," places where multiple subway lines intersect, starting with Times Square, which is unlike anyplace else in the city, sitting as it does atop the Sixth Avenue IND, Broadway BMT, Seventh Avenue IRT, Eighth Avenue IND, IRT Flushing, and crosstown shuttle lines. The guide for that tour, Queens's borough historian, "urban geographer" Jack Eichenbaum, had an uncanny eye for pointing out the buildings and street life of the area reflect the history of the area's transit development, and then he did the same for Queens Plaza and Jackson Heights in Queens.

The subway lines crossing those Queens nodes in both cases include the IRT Flushing line, the No. 1 train, which is one of the city's most fascinating lifelines, a veritable international lifeline. And on April 30 Jack is offering what he describes as his "signature tour."

THE WORLD OF THE #7 TRAIN
10am-5:30pm, SATURDAY, APRIL 30

This series of six walks and connecting rides along North Queens’ transportation corridor is my signature tour. We focus on what the #7 train has done to and for surrounding neighborhoods since it began service in 1914. Walks take place in Long Island City, Sunnyside, Flushing, Corona, Woodside and Jackson Heights and lunch is in Flushing’s Asiatown. Tour fee is $39 and you need to preregister by check to Jack Eichenbaum, 36-20 Bowne St. #6C, Flushing, NY 11354 (include name, phone and email address) The full day’s program and other info is available by email jaconet@aol.com The tour is limited to 25 people. Don’t get left out!

I got my check in the mail the day I saw the announcement. This promises to be a memorable occasion, and I know Jack still has openings. Frankly, I want to make sure he's got enough people registered to make it a "go." So I want to be sure all the people who would want to know about it do know about it. Spread the word!

And Jack's got a bunch of other tours coming up, both for the MAS (he has one next Sunday, April 10: "Conforming to the Grid: West Side," the sequel to an earlier "East Side" version, which I unfortunately couldn't get to; these tours are in commemoration of the 200th anniversary of the adoption of the street-grid plan that charted out the future development of Manhattan) and on his own (including weekend afternoons devoted to Long Island City and a fascinating-looking series of Wednesday-evening tours under the rubric "Changing Cultures of Queens: A Walking Anthology"). If you're in the area, do yourself a favor and check out the "Public Tour Schedule" on his website.

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The "new" Times Square is the key to revitalizing cities all over the country. (It is, isn't it?)

What, ya think I don't go to no Broadway shows? Yeah, I saw Spider-Man: Shut Off the Lights, or whatever the thing is called. Ya wanna make somethin' of it? (It would be nice if somebody did. The performers sure didn't seem to be having much luck trying to. This could be why the producers are shutting it down "for a brief hiatus," April 19-May 11. Good luck with that.)

by Ken

These days by and large when I stagger to 6pm and the end of my workday, like as not I'd just as soon shuffle home. (And that's no express hop. If I take my least stressful homeward transit route, once I board the train I get off a mere 28 stops later. But who's counting?) The other night, though, after surprising myself by remembering to look at my calendar, I was reminded that I had a commitment: the annual meeting of New York's Municipal Art Society.

This is the first time I've ever been an MAS member at the time of the annual meeting, and therefore eligible to attend. (I joined for the excellent MAS walking tours, and in fact have two coming up this weekend -- I just hold my knees hold up. Why, today I got around to poring over the April-May calendar I brought away from the meeting and signed up for four more tours.)

I get lots of e-mail from the MAS, and once I've checked out the upcoming tour listings, I often actually read about of the society's real business, which is monitoring and advocating for a host of urban quality-of-life issues. Great stuff! It seemed only logical to RSVP my attendance at the annual meeting. Besides, there was the promise of some sort of reception afterward. Although I am widely known in my admittedly narrow circle for the motto "Free isn't necessarily a bargain," the offer of free food nevertheless gets my attention.

I arrived early, as I often do -- my only weapon against the familiar horror of wheezing in late. I found a nice seat in the spacious theater where the meeting was held -- in the Times Square area, the them of this year's meeting being the miraculous regeneration of the area over the last 20 years --and tried my best not to wish I'd been able to go home.

In fact, the meeting was fine, and I'm glad I went fear of arriving late, And then talk turned to the impending annual meeting, at which there would be speeches and a panel discussion and election of new board members (who'd actually already been chosen; they were just going to be ratified) and even a reception afterward. Somehow in this telling it sounds even less interesting than it turned out to be, but the thing is, since I was a member, I got to go, and I did. And I'm not sorry I went.

For one thing, among the on-the-stage people there were a number with names I sort of recognized for their history of civic involvement. It was nice to attach faces and bodies to the names, and to see these very grown-up people really making a difference in their (our) community. During the president's talk about the society's agenda for the coming year, I actually got out a pen and jotted down the 11 items he announced for "our" Livability Watch List for the year, and it all sounded pretty darned good. Assuming I can read my notes, I could listen them for you, and I think you'd agree that they sound pretty darned good. Oh wait, I can crib them from the MAS website, which is where you'll find brief descriptions of each, with links to fuller discussions.

The MAS 11 for 2011 Watch List

The MAS 2011 Livability Watch List is a compilation of the 11 initiatives that will have the most significant effect on livability in New York City this year. As the leading organization dedicated to creating a more livable New York through intelligent urban planning and design, MAS will call attention to these 11 through advocacy work, public programming and issues monitoring.

Stay tuned to MAS.org for updates and watch for announcements on MAS programs that will explore our 11 for 2011.

1. Moynihan Station & Hudson Yards
2. The Garment District
3. Disaster Planning
4. Public Housing
5. The Bronx
6. Lower Manhattan
7. NYU Expansion
8. Changing Streets
9. PlaNYC 2.0
10. Waterfront
11. Coney Island

Serious stuff, right? Okay, in most cases you'll have to check out the website link to find out, for example, "Well, what about the Garment District, or Changing Streets?" But I do believe that a lot of people with their hearts in the right place have put a lot of time and effort into this, and come up with serious initiatives.

So it was all inspiring in its way: all these serious grown-up people devoting all that time and effort to making the city a more vibrant, livable place. I truly admire what they do, even as I know that that probably sounds like the prelude to a "but" which will lead to some bashing of what they do.

I won't bore you with an extended recap of the speeches. The keynote was given by Rocco Landesman, whom most of us know as, until recently, the head of Jujamcyn Theaters, operator of five Broadway theaters and thus one of the largest players in the city's live theater industry. He stepped down when he was named by President Obama to head the National Endowment for the Arts. And I jotted down some keywords from his speech too, which was also inspiring. Rocco was a major player in the Times Square revival -- after all, the financial health of Jujamcyn's theaters depended on lots of people wanting to come into the area, which for many years they had been not so eager to do because it had become so run-down and dangerous.

The turnaround, all present agreed, was nothing short of miraculous. It is also, Rocco explained, a model he is encouraging at the NEA to cities around the country: using the arts as an engine for urban revival. And even I was feeling kind of warm and toasty. I jotted down some notes from his presentation too.

Until I realized that I seemed to be the only person on the premises who wasn't entirely persuaded that the "rebirth" of Times Square was such a miracle. Oh, lip service was paid to the specter that had haunted the planners in the process of rebirthing the area: gentrification. You got the feeling that they weren't so much afraid of gentrification as they were afraid of being accused of gentrifying. Now that the grand project is complete and such a universally acknowledged rip-roaring success, it was possible for a certain number of those present to giggle at the very idea of the threat of gentrification.

When the floor was opened to audience questions, one questioner accused the panel participants of failing to give proper credit to Disney for the renaissance. The panelist most involved explained that yes, Disney had been important, because it lent credibility to the idea that the area could be reborn, but in fact the plans were in place before Disney signed on.

Who couldn't love the new Times Square?

To an extent, the lip service paid to apprehension over gentrification extended to pretending it hadn't happened, or not entirely. There was much satisfaction over the fact of the new Times Square being built on the old, and it's indeed true that much of the Broadway theater business was preserved -- surprisingly few of the commodious old theaters have been lost. Of course the serious part the Broadway theater business today is only serious about business, and has switched to the big monster houses, suitable only for high-noise "musicals" whose sound is delivered entirely as an electronic assault -- it's hard to know why audience members even need to be in their seats. Probably they have better-sounding sound systems at home on which they could listen to the proceedings in better sound as well as greater comfort.

The sad reality is that the Broadway theater as any sort of cultural medium has been dead for decades. It would go too far to say that the rebirth of the area killed it off. It was mostly moribund already, although the neighborhood in its rundown "depressed" condition probably made it possible for a certain number of shows of some actual artistic consequence to find temporary lodging.

So no, it's not really the death of artistic seriousness in the Broadway theater that I'm mourning now that Times Square is all improved. No, it's more that there's hardly anything to do in the improved Times Square. It's like a giant theme park, only without any rides. Just wildly overpriced restaurantlike businesses serving swill that barely qualifies as food and enormous clutches of selling even more wildly overpriced, well, stuff. What I see is one giant tourist trap, to use the old-fashioned term.

It's obviously a minority opinion that there's nothing to do in the new Times Square, because it's now routinely packed. At peak hours both the sidewalks and the streets are almost impassable. But I'll be damned if I can figure out what they're all doing, unless it's just to spend down a dangerous oversupply of time and money which seems to afflict these folks.

I used to have a dozen or more frequent destinations in the area, and probably another couple of dozen occasional ones. They're now all gone. Awhile back, when my friend Richard invited me to join him at a preview performance of Spider-Man: It's Dark in Here! -- it wasn't supposed to be a preview performance when he bought the tickets, but as of now, and for the foreseeable future, there haven't been anything but preview performances -- and we tried to find someplace to eat afterward, we were stumped.

Now you must understand that Richard is practically psychic when it comes to divining decent places to eat. None of his finely tuned sensors yielded anything. Oh, there were lots of restaurantlike establishments, but you could easily see which gimmick each was peddling, and none of it held much promise of edible food. So we settled for the outlet of a famous national chain, and after I gagged at the prices, I gagged at the turkey burger I was served. I'm not a food sender-back normally, but inedible is inedible. I swapped it for a cheeseburger that for my 28 bucks was at least edible.

Oh man, The Filthy 5 and The Promiscuous Sex Whatever (does it really matter? what could be bad that starts with "The Promiscuous Sex . . ."?) -- plus Sex with Stran[gers] (I'm guessing) too??? Were those the days or what?

Now I understand that the dark and dangerous old Times Square wasn't good for business, and what's bad for business isn't good for a city that has always depended on commerce. Still --

Again, it's undoubtedly just me, but I never found the old Times Square especially dangerous or depressing. To me it was filled with life, just as through most of its history New York City has enjoyed such a rich mix in that commerce it depends on that diversity of experience, including cultural experience, was built into the mix. Oh, sometimes it was messy, but it was vibrant, and alive. And once upon a time, somehow, a lot of people made a living there as well.

Most of the people I know feel pretty much the same way, but then, in the grand economic scheme of things, even though each of us actually spends a decent amount of money, we don't spend it in the safely predictable mass-group way that the people who mob the new Times Square do. And in the end, it's their money that drives this particular economic machine, even if it's being driven to noplace special.

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Planning Ahead For Nepal And Tibet

My trekking permit from 1971

The first time I was in Kathmandu was 1971. Nepal had just gotten it's first paved road-- in honor of the marriage of the Crown Prince. For me it was like a pilgrimage... the end of the road after a long, hard trip from England, across Europe, Turkey, Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan and India. This summer we're going again, my third time, Roland's second. The reason isn't just to visit Nepal again, but to take the next step: Tibet.

The Chinese don't make it easy to get in. In the past you could drive up to the border and stare. It opened up quite a bit in the last few years-- even to the point of allowing individuals to wander through the country. That's over now. The only way to get an entry permit is through an authorized travel agent and you're obligated to book a tour with a guide/minder. Getting the tickets are difficult too. You can't buy them online and doing it on the phone is fraught with roadblocks. I had to spend the entire day arguing with people at Air China yesterday. But in the end I got the tickets, $709.70 roundtrip, although they made me sign a letter saying that if I couldn't get the entry permit I wouldn't get a refund.

I'll keep copious notes on Tibet and report back. As for Kathmandu, we'll see how different it is from the link above (which mostly covers 1971). The monarchy is gone, of course. I was just reading yesterday that the new Prime Minister, Jhalanath Khanal, is the chairman of the Communist Party. The political stability of the country is tenuous. Great report in the Al Jazeera video below. Last time we stayed at the Yak and Yeti but we're thinking about Dwarka's this time. Anyone been to Kathmandu recently with any suggestions about a hotel?

I don't want to get anyone in trouble-- especially not myself-- so let me figure out how to give away all the secrets of booking this whole Tibet thing for after I get back. I'll say one thing though-- well two: normal travel agents can't or won't do it and everything is very negotiable... everything.

You'll Have to Postpone Seeing Yemen's Mud Skyscrapers Until The Revolution Is Over

In the best of times Yemen is always rated among the top 10 most dangerous countries to visit. And things have gotten worse this year. In fact, this weekend, every member of the cabinet who hadn't already resigned to protest President Ali Saleh's brutal crackdown on pro-democracy protesters, was summarily dismissed by Saleh. The minister of tourism, Nabil Hasan al-Faqih, had already quit Friday, citing the "unjustifiable use of force" against protesters. After all, there hasn't been much for him to do lately. In 2009 we looked at how dangerous Yemen was for tourists even when revolution was just smoldering in the background. And now Arab and international investment has decreased and tourism has dried up. Five star hotels in Aden, Sana’a, Mukala and Taiz are complaining about the significant decrease of tourists from Yemen and abroad.

Yemen's nascent tourist industry isn't the only one hit. Tourism across the whole Middle East is suffering-- if not comatose. Travel agents and governments are warning tourists away from Yemen-- as well as Egypt, Tunisia, Libya, Bahrain, Jordan, Lebanon, Oman and Algeria.

Travel to the Middle East is suffering a double whammy. Images of mass protests and outright war have scared visitors away while oil prices are lifting the cost of jet fuel and airfares. Last year’s fastest-growing travel market and looking forward to another good year in 2011, the Middle East industry is now in trouble, Euromonitor International says in a report.

...As of last week, the US State Department has travel warnings issued for nine Middle Eastern countries and travel alerts for two others. The latest addition to the list was Yemen. Britain has advised against any travel to Libya and Yemen and has more limited warnings for Bahrain, Iran and Iraq.

Here's the official State Department warning as of March 6 (and, keep in mind, things have gotten far worse since then, with hundreds of people killed by Saleh's forces:

The Department of State warns U.S. citizens of the high security threat level in Yemen due to terrorist activities and civil unrest. The Department urges U.S. citizens not to travel to Yemen. U.S. citizens currently in Yemen should consider departing Yemen. The Department of State has authorized the voluntary departure from Yemen of the family members of U.S. Embassy staff and non-essential personnel. This replaces the Travel Warning for Yemen issued October 15, 2010.

...The security threat level in Yemen is extremely high due to terrorist activities and civil unrest. Piracy in the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden and Indian Ocean is also a security threat to maritime activities in the region. Terrorist organizations continue to be active in Yemen, including Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). The U.S. government remains concerned about possible attacks against U.S. citizens, facilities, businesses, and perceived U.S. and Western interests. There is ongoing civil unrest throughout the country and large-scale protests in major cities.

Sounds very different from the WikiTravel description:

Yemen is country that everywhere just simply must be visited. It is a tourist's country, where although the accommodation might not be the best, but the country itself holds so many treasures that appeal to any open-minded visitor. The sights are amazing, the people are friendly, their culture is unique, and their food is tasty. Take trips with a personal driver through the mountains to see natural beauty located nowhere else on the planet. See the historical role Yemen played as it survived even during the times of the Sumerians and the Ancient Egyptians, and how no one was able to completely conquer Yemen. And enjoy what the country provides, like gemstones literally littered throughout the mountains, precious beaches, and historical artifacts from this multi-faced nation with one heartbeat... [T]he rewards for the persevering tourist are an unforgettable experience, populated with very friendly and open hosts. Despite being adjacent to Saudi Arabia and on the same peninsula as the United Arab Emirates, Yemen is definitely a place apart.

UPDATE: Tyrant Offers To Step Down

Now that many of the country's top generals have joined teh tourism minister in deserting Ali Abdullah Saleh, the dictator, the government has all but collapsed. Saleh is trying to negotiate for his life by offering to step down.

Back-channel negotiations between the controversial U.S. ally and Maj. Gen. Ali Mohsen al-Ahmar-- a top commander who withdrew his loyalty from the president on Monday-- haven't yet yielded a clear transition of power, but the political process so far has succeeded in keeping the power struggle from devolving into military conflict or civil war.

Tanks commanded by Mr. Saleh's son are deployed around the presidential palace in the capital, while tanks manned by forces loyal to Gen. Ahmar have set up nearby, as well near several sensitive government buildings, like the Central Bank, according to residents.

The prognosis of the talks remain unclear, and the threat of military conflict remains a possibility, according to officials in San'a. Saudi Arabia and Yemeni tribal leaders are involved in the negotiations, according to people familiar with the situation, but President Saleh appears to be staking out untenable terms.

Hawai'i's Tourism Industry Takes A Big Hit

Hawai'i's economy isn't totally based on tourism. Military spending is also a factor. But mostly it's tourism. The state, basically 19 volcanic islands, offers unparalleled natural beauty, great surfing, tropic rainforests, a choice between a slick, luxurious tourist industry or an opportunity for spiritual peace and quiet. And it isn't seasonal; the weather is always alluring. Hawai'i gets around 8 million visitors a year-- and they bring over $10 billion a year into the economy. A rule of thumb around the world is that American tourists spent five to ten times more than tourists from other countries. Hawai'i is the exception. The average Japanese tourist spends more than the average American tourist in Hawai'i-- and their presence-- even as more South Koreans and Chinese are starting to visit-- has declined. 2009's sharp increase in South Korean visitors (55,000, up 43% over 2008) came at a time when declines in Hawai'i's top five visitor markets contributed to an overall 4.5% drop in visitor arrivals. Arrivals from Japan, long the mainstay for tourism-- about $2 billion worth in 2010-- fell by 4.9% to 1.1 million visitors.

Hawaii tourism officials are worried fewer Japanese tourists are visiting the state and are trying to figure out how to reverse the trend.

Figures show 1.37 million Japanese visitors came to Hawaii last year, down 9.4% from the year before. That's 36% lower than the peak of 2.15 million hit in 1997.

Japanese visitors spend more on average in the islands than travelers from the U.S. mainland and other countries, making them valued customers for the state's tourism industry.

"We're all concerned because Japan is still a much-sought-after and important market for the state," said Marsha Wienert, the state tourism liaison.

Industry experts say fewer flights from Japan, fuel surcharges on those flights, and a rise in Hawaii hotel room rates are encouraging Japanese tourists to go elsewhere for their vacations.

Hawaii remains popular for U.S. mainland and Canadian tourists, however. Data shows 2.6% more travelers from the U.S. mainland visited Hawaii last year and travelers from Canada grew 9.9%.

And that was before the earthquake, tsunami and Fukushima. The average Japanese tourist in Hawai'i spends $261.90/day (compared to $231 for a Korean and $322.70 for a Chinese tourist). The NY Times reported this week that the catastrophic in Japan is making an already bad trend for Hawai'i even worse.

The tour and hotel cancellations began within hours, and they have been continuing-- a reminder of how dependent Hawaii is on tourists who make the nine-hour trip here from Tokyo. State officials, well aware of the history of Japanese tourism fallout after other calamities-- including the Kobe earthquake in 1995 and the swine flu epidemic in 2009-- are now bracing for a sharp drop in tourism and the revenue it produces.

“We are heavily dependent on Japanese visitors,” said State Representative Marcus R. Oshiro, a Democrat from Honolulu and the chairman of the House Finance Committee. “There is no doubt in my mind that at least in the short term, we are going to be severely impacted by the earthquake and tsunami. It may be anywhere from $15 to $20 million in state revenues lost just from that tourist market.”

Japanese tourism is not what it once was: Last year, 1.2 million Japanese visited Hawaii, down from a peak of about 2.2 million visitors in 1996. The downturn reflects the effects of the worldwide recession but also changing travel tastes of Japanese tourists. But by any measure, Japanese citizens are a critical part of the tourism industry, which is a critical part of the state’s economy.

Japan ranks third in the number of visitors it sends to Hawaii, following the Western and Eastern United States mainland, but Japanese tourists are much more aggressive spenders and thus contribute disproportionately to the economy. They spend far more money per day on food, hotels and shopping, particularly luxury goods. A typical visitor from the Western United States spent $146 a day last year, while a Japanese tourist spent $274, state officials said.

Hawai'i itself didn't suffer too much physical damage from the tsunami. The Big Island’s Kona Village Resort and the Four Seasons at Hualalai took some major damage and both are closed. So far there hasn't been any radiation from Japan detected.
Hawaii Gov. Neil Abercrombie estimates the loss in revenues from Japanese tourists will be in the tens of millions of dollars.

According to Abercrombie, “The economic consequences will be severe for us… it’s going to be terrible. It’s something we have to come to grips with.” David Uchiyama, the Marketing Director of the Hawaii Tourism Authority, told USA Today that “this is just the first shock wave… a cultural sense of obligation and responsibility ” holds Japanese from international travel during domestic crises.

This sentiment is also shared by Jürgen Thomas Steinmetz, president of the privately-held Hawaii Tourism Association (HiTA). Steinmetz has made some waves in Hawaii in recent years, criticizing the government-run Hawaii Tourism Authority for not diversifying enough beyond traditional markets such as the U.S. West Coast and Japan… a shortcoming that is now coming to roost as the state will have to scramble to make up for the expected drop in arrivals from Japan.

According to Steinmetz, the Japan tsunami and its aftermath are a wake-up call for Hawaii to reach out to new markets. At the top of his list: wealthy countries whose citizens don’t require a visa to enter the US, such as most of Europe, Singapore and Brunei. Steinmetz, who hails from Germany, believes that Europe is a particularly promising opportunity: “Europeans not only love to travel but get a lot of vacation time. Where Americans might stay for days, European tourists can afford to think in terms of weeks.” The Aloha State might not exactly be around the corner from Frankfurt or Rome, but Europeans don’t hesitate to travel to New Zealand, or Fiji. So why not Hawaii? China and India are also promising markets in Steinmetz’s view.

For starters, Hawaii Tourism will need to learn that showing up is half the battle. At ITB Berlin, the world’s largest tourism trade show, Libya and Afghanistan were represented. Even the Seychelles, which has a small fraction of the population and per capita income of Hawaii, had dozens of exhibitors. According to Steinmetz, Hawaii had no comparable presence.

It might be too early to tell if Hawaii’s 2011 and 2012 tourism prospects will be a case of “too little too late” or “saved by the bell.” But one thing is clear: it’s high time to diversify.

Tourism In The Middle East And Magreb? Barely A Pulse

Arizona tourism went into the crapper as soon as violent extremists started running around the state with hate messages and unrestricted guns. Even Frommer warned the state is too dangerous to visit. I know Wisconsin is a popular tourist destination year round and I'm not sure if the right-wing turmoil in Madison is having any impact on the state's tourist industry-- not to mention the fried cheese curd and bratwurst makers. But some of the other areas where people are fighting for the human rights and dignity-- like Libya, Bahrain and Tunisia-- the tourist industry is dead in the water. Wikipedia's Libya Travel site starts with an ominous-looking warning sign: "WARNING: As of February 2011, Libya is in a severe state of political and civil crisis. Military, police and security forces are using deadly force in attempts to quell civil unrest in many parts of the country. Reports have emerged of thousands of people having been killed or seriously injured. If you are already in Libya, stay away from large public gatherings and try to gain independent and reliable information about the political and civil situation in your area. Try to organize a secure exit from Libya by contacting your country's embassy or their representatives either in Libya, your home country or neighbouring nations. The governments of many nations have issued formal travel warnings, research these warnings in depth before travelling to or moving about within Libya. Many nations have also recommended their citizens in Libya should leave the country immediately and some have managed to arrange evacuation flights or other means of travel. The situation is highly volatile, care and elevated situational awareness must be exercised at all times if attempting to move about or transit through effected areas of Libya." Not very alluring-- and a disaster for the country's small but developing tourist industry.

Morocco's tourist industry is far more developed-- and a crucial part of the country's economy. Tourism is way down as Europeans-- forget Americans-- wonder if the country is safe or likely to be the scene of violent protests like the rest of the Maghreb.

As the Egyptian and Tunisian destinations were collapsing, travel agents all over Europe were offering Morocco and the Canary Islands as alternatives for cancelled trips.

In Germany, Europe's greatest market, travel agents in late January and early February openly campaigned for Morocco as the safe and quiet alternative to Tunisia and Egypt in local media. Similar campaigns were registered in the UK, Scandinavia and France.

Consequently, flights to Morocco from Europe over the last few weeks have been fuller than ever during a low season. Morocco today published record arrivals for January, and the growing Moroccan tourism industry was making important extra revenues.

But these short heydays are now over. Each and every day, international media are overflowing with reports from the protest wave spreading to new countries. There is a widespread impression it is only a question of time for unrest and revolution to reach Morocco.

An American tourist spends something like 8 times what other tourists spend... and Americans have been the first to cancel their trips to anyplace remotely dangerous-sounding. Even now, with Europeans beginning to trickle back into Egypt, Americans are booking trips to Hawaii, Las Vegas and Bermuda instead.

Egypt earns upwards of $13 billion a year from its tourism industry -- an integral part of the nation's struggling economy.

But Masood Ahmed, director of the International Monetary Fund's Middle East and Central Asia Department, told a press conference last week the decline in tourism was likely to seriously hurt Egypt.

"The recent popular protests in Egypt will definitely have a short-term economic cost," Ahmed said. "We will see tourism and investment going down, and certainly the 5.5% growth rate that we saw in the last two quarters of 2010 will likely be considerably lower in the next six months."

And that decline in tourism isn't likely to change anytime soon. The U.S. State Department is still warning Americans to stay away from Egypt for "non-essential travel."

"Due to continuing uncertainties regarding the restructuring of Egyptian government institutions, the security situation remains unresolved," the department said in a travel warning posted on its website. "Until the redeployment of Egyptian civilian police is fully restored, police response to emergency requests for assistance or reports of crime may be delayed."

The U.S. government has also ordered the departure of all nonemergency personnel from Egypt. Cairo is one of the largest duty stations in the world, with thousands of U.S. employees administering economic and military aid.

But British Prime Minister David Cameron visited Egypt this week-- and his government is allowing British tourists to return to Sharm el-Sheik and the Red Sea resorts. So has Germany's government.

Today's NY Times puts on a brighter face, pointing out that Tahrir Square has become a new tourist destination.

Many tourist sites in and around Cairo are open again-- from the pyramids to the Khan el-Khalili souk to the Egyptian Antiquities Museum. But these days the most sought-after photo is not one of Tutankhamen’s mask but of Tahrir (Liberation) Square, a mammoth traffic circle the world had stared at for three weeks on television. Named after Egypt’s 1919 liberation from the British, Tahrir Square is a top destination for many of the Western tourists who have begun trickling into Egypt in recent days.

“It is amazing what has happened here,” said Aart Blijdorp, a 60-year-old civil servant from the Netherlands. He had flown in a few days earlier to attend the seven-day anniversary of Mr. Mubarak’s resignation, a gathering on Tahrir Square that the protesters hope will become a weekly Friday event to remind the current military government of their continuing demands for reform. “The optimism in the air was so apparent on the news, I had to come feel it for myself,” Mr. Blijdorp said, after introducing me to two young protesters he had met in the square. They had become Mr. Blijdorp’s tour guides around Cairo.

“We have been taking him around because he is traveling on his own,” said Omar Ahmed, 23, a civil engineer, adding that they were off to the Citadel, but that Mr. Blijdorp wanted to come back to Tahrir Square first.

“The good news is he is seeing everything fast, because no one is here,” said Hamdy Mohammed, 24, a law student. “But we want tourists to come back because it is a new Egypt now.”

“So far, Tahrir is my favorite place,” said Mr. Blijdorp, who had visited the Pyramids the day before.

The allure of visiting Egypt at this moment hasn’t been lost on some tour operators. For example, Akorn Destination Management (akorndmc.com), which bills itself as an organization that delivers “inspirational travel experiences,” is offering “Tahrir Square-- Egypt Is Making History,” a trip that includes a Nile cruise, a walk through Tahrir Square and a stay at the Semiramis InterContinental Hotel, which is near the square.

As Rick Zeolla, the general manager of the Cairo Marriott, where Christiane Amanpour and many other journalists stayed, put it: “Right now Egypt is like having a fast pass at Disney. People should come over.”

Amr Badr, managing director of Abercrombie & Kent in Egypt and the Middle East, believes now is a unique time to visit Egypt and see history in the making. “I think people will immediately feel the energy,” he said, noting that the streets are now cleaner than they have been in recent memory, and that Tahrir Square has become a “living exhibit-- a sort of Speaker’s Corner” in Egypt that they plan to promote. Egyptians, he added, are feeling a newly found sense of pride in their country. “If Egypt was good before, it will be better now,” he said.

Michael Koth, general manager of the Semiramis InterContinental, said his clients are no longer asking for a “Nile view” room but a Tahrir view. “The early guests we are seeing are more independent, well seasoned and globally focused travelers,” Mr. Koth said.

Mali was probably more "dangerous" when nothing was especially going on, politically speaking. Here below is a photo I took of Roland on rue Guide Mouamar El Kaddafi in Timbuktu. Last week we were in Guadalajara, right after a terrorist attack that left nearly 50 people dead or wounded. Everyone we knew told us not to go. Yet the place seemed safer than New York or L.A.-- and the prices were down and the crowds much smaller, making everything easier. We love Guadalajara anyway, but it was even better with all the wooses scared off. Nothing would get me to Libya 'til the Qaddafis are dead-- which could be weeks away-- but we're already thinking about a trip there soon. Arizona... not so much.

Live Blogging A Quick Getaway To Guadalajara

Who knew this weekend was going to be like 1848 all over again-- only in Bahrain, Libya, Wisconsin, Algeria, Ohio and Yemen? I just figured it would be another sleepy 3 day weekend and I could take the 3 hour Alaska Air flight direct from LAX to Guadalajara, Mexico's peaceful, sophisticated second biggest city (metro area population- 4.5 million, bigger than any U.S. city other than NYC).

It's a manufacturing town and a major cultural center, even above and beyond being the home of mariachi music. And there's incredible shopping in the suburb of Tlaquepaque. We were a little nervous about going because the drug wars seem to have arrived with a bang last week-- dozens of people were wounded or killed in a gun and grenade attack not far from our hotel. Turns out the drug wars aren't new to Guadalajara at all. In 1993 the Archbishop, Juan Jesús Posadas Ocampo, was murdered in his car-- 14 gunshot wounds-- at the airport by members of the San Diego Logan Heights Gang working for the Tijuana Cartel or the Carlos Salinas government; no one knows for sure.

I just found 300 pesos in my foreign currency jar from the last time I was in Mexico. That's great because it costs 220 pesos (fixed price, monopoly) to go from the airport to downtown. The roundtrip flight was $389. My plan is to live blog the whole trip on this page. Hasta mañana-- or luego. Here's the weather:



First Night In Guadalajara

It was a pretty easy trip, nice and smooth. One lady across the aisle had a seizure and a real tarted up one behind her was reading the Sarah Palin book. If there's room in first class they let you upgrade for$50. There was and we did. Airport formalities were a snap, weather's balmy, taxis plentiful and the hotel-- Quinta Real-- as welcoming as last time we stayed here. Tlaquepaque mañana.

Since there was that grenade attack just a week ago I thought it would be prudent to check the news updates for Guadalajara and see what was up... gay beer was the first thing to show itself-- for people who think Corona and Michelob are too straight.

Minerva, a small brewery in Jalisco, Mexico, believes its "artisan honey-ales" will appeal to gay men and lesbians whose refined tastes have been put on the back burner by beer manufacturers.

...The brewery has two beers on offer: Salamandra and Purple Hand, which refers to the famous gay rights protest in San Francisco in 1969. Wyler says the drinks' labels can be removed and worn as a symbol of pride. (Gay or straight, is wearing a beer label on your sleeve ever a good idea?)

Sábado

The hotel has nice hard comfortable beds and last night was the first time in months I slept past 6AM. The free breakfast buffet alone is worth the price of admission. There's almost nothing-- short of chop suey-- you could want to eat that isn't there. After eating too much, we spent the day wandering around Tlaquepaque, browsing in the very uncrowded shops and galleries. I wound up buying a sculpture (right) by Sergio Bustamante-- odd for me since I've been busy reverse-collecting (giving stuff away and speaking with museums about who gets what after I'm no longer among the quick). Anyway, they don't like bargaining in Tlaquepaque-- it's nothing like Morocco-- but if you're persistent you can get 10% off and if they feel you're serious and willing to pay cash, 15% is easy and needs no histrionics. We ate at one of the highly rated restaurants in town, Casa Fuerte, and the stuff we ordered was great but the salsa and chips that came free had no taste at all. Prices are good here for everything. The food was cheap and so were the taxis. Tonight we're going for a long walk from the hotel into downtown-- like 3 miles I estimate-- and we're going to try a vegetarian restaurant that's I remember from last time being real good: Zanahoria.

...And later that night. Zanahoria was closed so we went to the best place in town, Sacromonte, which we remembered from last time we were here. Actually Roland remembered it. I remember nada. We weren't that hungry so we had some delicious avocado apetizers and called it a night. People look very fit here-- except the kids. The kids are obese. In fact there's an obesity epidemic among Mexican children. Guess who's influence they're coming under? U.S. has the highest percentage of obese people in the world and now Mexico is numero dos.

Obesity is a disease that affects the United States, but it also has risen in Mexico, and a UH professor recently named as a Fulbright Scholar is helping to combat the disease in both countries.

Rebecca Lee, an assistant professor of nutrition and director of UH’s Texas Obesity Research Center, will soon take her expertise to Guadalajara, Mexico, to assist in further discovery of this disease.

...Research conducted during Lee’s time in Mexico will also aim to document and define obesity in a better fashion and determine possible environmental factors that contribute to a population’s obesity problem.

“Recent data suggest that the problem of obesity has emerged in Mexico, particularly among youth,” Lee said in the release.

While the US has the highest obesity rate worldwide, studies have cited Mexico as having the second highest, Lee said.

And we're off to Tonalá now-- a market suburb like Tlaquepaque that I had missed in the past.

Tonalá may not be as refined and high end but it's just as good as Tlaquepaque, espcially on market days, Sundays and Thursdays, when there are hundreds and hundreds of stalls selling stuff. Much of the stuff, in fact, that is sold in Tlaquepaque is made in Tonalá. After we got back we had dinner in the most highly recommended vegetarian restaurant, Zanahoria, which wasn't that far of a walk from our hotel. Nice folks run it and the food was ok, but it's vegetarian cooking circa 1970. The world has moved on-- way beyond.



Our last night in town we ate in a restaurant I really want to suggest you don't miss if you're ever in Guadalajara. After spending a full day exploring the central historic core with it's spectacular cathedral and public buildings-- you see why the city is called "the Florence of Mexico"-- we made it to the most beautiful-looking restaurant we kept passing everyday, Cocina 88. The look of the place in a grand old mansion is inviting enough but the Peruvian food is about the best I've eaten in Guadalajara. I had cerviche and then a coconut-crushed mahi mahi that I can't stop thinking about.

Back to the historic core again for a minute, especially since it's what draws so many tourists, especially Mexican tourists, to Guadalajara. Dr Atl (Gerardo Murillo) was born in Guadalajara and is widely known as the father of modern Mexican muralism but the most outstanding mural in town comes from another Jalisco native, José Clemente Orozco. The Government Palace has some of his most incredible work and I'm posing (above) and Roland (below) in front of Man of Fire, the breathtaking depiction of early 1800s freedom fighter Father Miguel Hidalgo on the broad sweeping staircase going to the second floor. And on the third floor is a later mural in the state assembly, The People and Its Leaders. His work, of course, made us think about the struggle working men and women are going through this week in Egypt, Libya, Bahrain, Wisconsin, Ohio, Algeria, Yemen...

Hopefully All The Violence Will Be Over Before We Get To Guadalajara Next Week

Roland and I really do try to avoid violence when we travel. I tend to shy away from places where tourists are being targeted or from places with sustained random violence. But the best laid plans, as they say... We wound up arriving in Egypt in 1997 the day after over 60 tourists were murdered by terrorists in Luxor (which is exactly where we were going). We were practically the only tourists in the country-- and had an amazing time. We were in civil war-torn Sri Lanka a few days after rebels shot and killed dozens of people at a shrine. Roland was fascinated by all the blood still on the stones. Once I stood with my hands over my head surrounded by screaming Afghan militiamen pointing automatic weapons at me for an hour and we've had interesting scrapes with red shirts in Thailand-- a restaurant we always eat in was mortared-- and with pissed off Palestinians on the West Banks, Turkish bomb throwers in Istanbul and anti-royal Maoists in Nepal. "Hey dude, I'm on your side when it comes to monarchies," doesn't cut it.

But this month I was just looking for a restful, no-drama easy trip after the stress of being in Morocco for a month. I picked Flores, an island town on Lago Petén Itzá in northern Guatemala, near the ancient-- and glorious and alluring-- Mayan ruins at Tikal. The airlines make it so inconvenient to get to, with their selfish, money-grubbing hub-cities policies that a trip that should just take a few hours entailed a whole day of inconvenient travel going and coming, eating up a minimum of two full days out of the 5 we had. So we decided on a town with direct flights from L.A. that we've been to before and really love: Guadalajara in Mexico. And much safer than anywhere else in Mexico-- until now. Banditos opened fire in a restaurant today killing half a dozen people, wounding 37-- and just down the street from a hotel we had been considering. Guadalajara is Mexico's second biggest city with almost 4-and-a-half million people. Lately a drug gang turf war has broken out. This is a bummer for Guadalajara since it's supposed to host the Pan American Games in October.

Last week the State Department warned about driving in the western (hipster) part of the city at night.

The U.S. consulate in Guadalajara, Mexico's second-largest city, posted a message on its website Thursday saying that it had prohibited U.S. diplomatic personnel from traveling the highway to the airport at night, and that it "recommends that U.S. citizens consider similar precautions."

On Tuesday, assailants hurled grenades, burned vehicles and blocked several Guadalajara streets and highways in seven near-simultaneous attacks that injured a policeman and two transportation workers. Such tactics have been used by cartels in the past to aid their escapes from police.

The attacks were staged by drug gangs, possibly in retaliation for the arrests of their members, said Fernando Guzman Perez, interior secretary of Jalisco state, where Guadalajara is located.

Tlaquepaque is our favorite part of Guadalajara. I was surprised the guide is wearing a bullet-proof vest in the video:

Whither The Egyptian Tourist Industry?

The #1 concern among one subset of Americans in regard to the revolution against brutal, grinding dehumanizing tyranny in Egypt has nothing to do with Egypt's 80,000,000 mostly impoverished people, It's all about Israel. Well, relax... Mohamed ElBaradei was on Meet the Press today and he vows that the peace treaty is rock solid. And then there's the tourism-- which accounts for at least 7% of Egypt's GDP. Americans didn't get as crazy about Mubarak thugs riding through Tahrir Square killing peaceful protesters as they did about Mubarak thugs breaking into the Egyptian Museum on the same square breaking some artifacts. "People can be replaced," one American told me. These treasures can't." I wanted to vomit.

The Egyptian economy is incredibly bound up with tourism-- and the balmy winter is the high season. In a country with rampant, systemic unemployment, one job in 8 is a tourist industry job. Since the protests began, a million tourists have left the country and Egypt has lost at least a billion dollars in evaporated tourist revenues. That's massive. I was shocked that until there was actual blood flowing in the streets both the U.S. State Department and its British counterpart were working to bolster Egypt's economy by falsely claiming tourism was perfectly normal and non-problematic. In a matter of one day, they went from "Everything's wonderful; have a good time and be careful of sunburn" to "Get to the airport for an emergency flight out immediately." I was shocked that both the U.S. and British governments would put Egypt's tourist industry ahead of the safety of their own citizens.

Today's L.A. Times reports that despite the catastrophic effect of the drop off in tourist revenues "some Egyptians whose livelihoods depend on the tourist trade are sympathetic to the protesters' cause."

In the fragrant confines of the California Perfumes Palace, within view of the Giza pyramids, Ahmed Ali uncorked his scented wares-- "Try the Cleopatra oil!"-- and talked of the need for change.

"It's bad for us," he said of the tumult. "But it's a happy time for the people. In the end, Egypt will be a stronger country, a better country."

Egypt's vice president, Omar Suleiman, told state television last week that the ongoing unrest had cost Egypt $1 billion in tourism revenue. Some analysts thought that estimate was a conservative one.

The State Department advised U.S. citizens to avoid travel to Egypt and to leave as soon as they could do so safely. Over the last six days, about 2,300 Americans have crowded aboard evacuation flights organized by the U.S. Embassy in Cairo. Commercial flights, which were disrupted at the height of the turmoil, are flying in nearly empty and flying out full.

In some parts of the country, the events unfolding violently in the capital seem a world away, and tourist operators would like their clientele to think of them that way.

At one hotel in the Red Sea resort of Sharm el Sheikh, guests noticed that a few days into the protests, a big flat-screen television disappeared from a coffee nook just off the opulent lobby. Waiters explained it was broken.

The tourist economy has bounced back from hard times before. In 1997, Islamist gunmen massacred dozens of foreign tourists in Luxor, causing an initially dramatic drop-off in visitor traffic, but the industry eventually recovered. In April 2005, a suicide bomber struck near a souk in Cairo popular with visitors from abroad, killing three foreign tourists.

This morning the Associated Press chronicled the crumbling state of Egyptian tourism over the past 12 days, pointing out that major carriers like Delta and even EgyptAir have stop flying between the U.S. and Cairo and that travelers have been canceling their plans en masse.

Travelers faced the same question as Rob Solow, who is booked on an Egyptian getaway this month with his wife. “Is it going to be an issue where we are going to have to watch our backs the whole time?”

The Yorktown Heights, N.Y., couple aren't sure if they'll make the trip. But Solow said he won't be going to the Middle East in the future: “I just think it's a troubled part of the world that's not necessary to visit.”

The timing of the violence and political uncertainty couldn't be worse-- winter is the high season for visitors. Large tour operators such as Gate 1 Travel and cruise companies including Norwegian Cruise Line have canceled Egyptian stops. Tours elsewhere in the Middle East haven't been canceled, but travel agents are getting a steady stream of inquiries about the status of trips.

“The ones who haven't booked are holding off and the ones who have are trying to get out of it,” says Blake Fleetwood, owner of several Cook Travel businesses in New York.

...Jordanian economist Hani Horani said: “Foreign tourists look at the Middle East as one entity and they will avoid traveling to an area they consider unstable.”

One view is that Egyptian tourism-- which probably started a couple hundred years before Christ when Greek travelers made their way to ancient monuments-- has an uncertain future. Another view takes the exact opposite view-- that this is a good time to go to Egypt-- or at least certain parts of it. In 1997 Roland and I arrived in Cairo the day after dozens of Swiss, Japanese and other tourists were hunted down and massacred by extremists inside the Temple of Hatshepsut at Deir el-Bahri right across the Nile from Luxor, the second most important tourist area after the Pyramids and Sphinx complex at Giza. We pretty much had the whole tourist infrastructure to ourselves and it was awesome. But now, all the important historical and cultural sites are shuttered. If you like surf and sun and cheap, gaudy hotels in a cultural wilderness, though...

Contrary to popular belief, tourism is not dead in all of Egypt. The situation in the popular Red Sea destinations of Sharm el Sheikh, Hurghada, Taba, and Marsa Alam remains “safe” with hotels operating “business as usual” according to Thomson Travels.

Although the British Foreign Office has advised its nationals against all but essential travel to Cairo, Alexandria, Suez and Luxor, British tour operators offered a string of promotions this week on holidays in Egypt's Red Sea resorts which remain popular with holidaymakers despite unrest elsewhere in the country stressing that they are far from the main flashpoints.

Thomas Cook has a one-week holiday in an all-inclusive, four-star Sharm el-Sheikh hotel at £319. First Choice is offering a two-week holiday in the resort from £359 flying from London. Thomson has flights seats at £79 on a one-way flight from Edinburgh to Sharm el-Sheikh, and return flights from Manchester at £159 leaving Wednesday for 10 days in the resort. Other return flights from Britain to Red Sea destinations were priced at £149 with some flights nearly full.

The two biggest tour operators in Britain, Thomas Cook and TUI Travel, which runs Thomson and First Choice, offered several deals to the Red Sea. A spokeswoman for TUI Travel said that Sharm el-Sheikh "operates like a country in itself," run separately from the rest of Egypt, with one main road in and low unemployment due to the tourism industry. TUI Travel also said that there had been no incidents related to the uprising in the Red Sea resorts, where it was "business as usual."

"The atmosphere is quiet and calm, with Sharm el-Sheikh's main resort of Naama Bay bustling as people continue to enjoy their holidays as normal," the spokeswoman said. “The curfew is only imposed in Cairo, Alexandria and Suez. It is not being enforced in any Red Sea resort to which we operate. Booking conditions to Sharm el Sheikh, Marsa Alam, Taba and Hurgharda remain as normal”-- in other words, if you cancel your trip, you will lose most or all of your money. Thomas Cook is taking the same line, saying “no tourist areas at the Red Sea have been affected in any way by the recent demonstrations.

I wouldn't trust any of this as far as I could throw it. Of course, there is another reason some intrepid travels might want to go to Egypt now-- to witness the rebirth of a great nation as it struggles for its dignity and for its future generations against the forces of tyranny. You can't order one of those packages up at Thomas Cook everyday.




UPDATE: OK, Mubarak's Gone, Now What?

Egypt is bracing for a cratering economy but one tour operator, probably an optimist, said he expects "a return to normalcy by the end of the month." Others say March and some say April... or October.

Earlier this week, the Associated Press reported monuments and museums around Cairo were deserted. The Pyramids of Giza reopened to tourists on Wednesday after a 12-day closure, but few people came to visit.

The Egyptian Museum in Cairo-- next to Tahrir Square in Cairo, where many of the most heated political protests have taken place-- remained shuttered, though officials vowed to reopen "after the strike is finished."

Egypt relies heavily on the tourism industry. Last year, the country had 14.7 million visitors, who generated $11 billion in revenue, according to the Egyptian Tourist Authority in New York. That number is about 11 percent of the total gross domestic product for the country.

Before Mubarak's resignation, tourism officials had predicted a quick turn around once the political turmoil quiets down.

"Looking back to previous crises that hit this industry in the last decade, one can tell that the current crisis, despite all its negative effects on our business, will be and should be the fastest to fade and the least harmful of all," says ElSayed Khalifa, consul-director of the ETA in New York.

Mohamed Kamel, chief executive officer of the Red Sea resort builder Egyptian Resorts Co., told Bloomberg he was optimistic that tourism in Egypt would rebound quickly.

"People are now looking at Egypt as a more competitive destination because of the exchange rate," Kamel tells Bloomberg. "And during crises, more concessions are made to tourists to get business jumpstarted."

Will Morocco Be The Next Domino To Fall? Or The One After That?

This morning many eyes turned nervously towards Jordan, where King Abdullah, reacting to demonstrations blaming government corruption for high food prices and a horrifying standard of living disparity between the rich and poor, fired one tool (Prime Minister Samir Rifai) and replaced him with another (Marouf Bakhit, a military guy). But it is more likely that the next explosion, in the wake of Mubarak's regime collapsing, will be further west along the Mediterranean, Morocco.



I hope I'm not boring everybody with all the talk about Morocco, which, I realize, most Americans haven't been terribly aware of after it became the very first country in the world-- yes, even before France-- to recognize our revolution and our independence from the tyranical British superpower (December, 1777). I first went there is 1969 when I was just a kid and I've been writing about it ever since. I lost count of how many times I've been there after a dozen and I've yet to meet a Moroccan who's been to as many places in Morocco as I have. (I can always pull Sidi Ifni or the Erg Chigaga dunes south of M'hamid out of my hat.) I just spent most of December in Marrakech, where I rented a riad next to King Mohammed VI's palace in the medina. Most of the traffic that comes to thisl blog comes from people on search engines who find the post Is Morocco A Safe Place To Visit?. The short answer to the question about Morocco being safe is YES. But in light of the revolutionary spirit coursing through the Arab world, especially in North Africa, we need to take a look again. Can tranquil, scenic, touristic, ever more cosmopolitan Morocco go the way of Tunisia and Egypt? Short answer is the same: YES!

I didn't want to be rude to the neighbor but, like I wrote, Mohammed VI, when you strip away the 21st Century p.r. veneer, is an authoritarian despot, not all that much different from any king or Emperor or sultan or tsar. In fact, one thing I noticed a lot-- and eventually started questioning people about-- is that many Moroccans sounded exactly like pre-Revolutionary Russians believing in only their Little Tsar knew what evil the terrible men around him were perpetrating against his people! Mohammed calls all the shots in the family business, a business that owns at least a piece of almost everything, from the big hotels to the drug trafficking bonanza that a Wikileaks cable from a U.S. diplomat asserts is the only bigger source of income in the kingdom than the tourist industry. And remember, it was the release of wikileaks cables that opened the flood gates against the dictators in Tunisia and Egypt as well.

Even members of the royal family believe Morocco's monarchy can't go unscathed by what is sweeping the rest of North Africa right now. The King's cousin, Prince Moulay Hicham, 3rd in line to the throne and popularly known as the "Red Prince," because of his criticisms of the monarchy, said "the political liberalisation launched in the 1990s after Mohammed succeeded his authoritarian father Hassan II had virtually come to an end, and reviving it while still avoiding radical pressures would be 'a major challenge'." Everyone is counting on the spiritual bond between THE KING and the people, a bond, they hope, makes him different from a grubby usurper like Ben Ali or Mubarak or Algeria's Abdelaziz Bouteflika. On the other hand, dissident journalist Aboubakr Jamai wrote in France's Nouvel Observateur that "If Morocco goes up, the disparities in wealth are such that the rebellion will be much bloodier than in Tunisia."


Afrol News appears to be as anti-monarchial and "down with tyranny" as we are here. This week, with Egypt exploding, they seemed to try stirring things up a little for Mohammed who, they reported, was off in one of his fabulous palaces... in France, plotting, no double, contingencies in case any radicals decided it was time to follow the example of Tunisia and Egypt and throw off the chains of oppression and kleptocracy.

Discontent is ample in Morocco, the poorest, least developed North African nation, and many are inspired by developments in Egypt. Meanwhile, Morocco's King Mohammed VI rests in his French luxury chalet.

Morocco so far has been spared from larger protesting groups as those in Tunisia and Egypt, much thanks to the King's quick reversal of boosting prices for basic foods. The same move proved a good assurance for authorities in neighboring Algeria.

But discontent is very widespread in Morocco. Despite an economic boom over the last years and some careful reforms ordered by King Mohammed VI-- most prominently regarding gender equality and education-- Morocco remains the poorest country in North Africa, with least employment opportunities and the lowest literacy rate.

The King, claiming to descend from the Prophet Mohammed, has an almost divine role in Morocco. Very few dare to criticise him, even in the mildest form.

Among the Arab majority, loyalty to the King is great, while the government-- appointed by the King-- and age-old ruling "Makhzen" class-- controlling the administration, police, army and much of business-- are the popular focus of hatred. In the streets of Casablanca, it is often said that the King is honest and wants to rule the country well, but the Makhzen is corrupting everything.

Minorities, however, to a wider degree dare to blame the King for their mischief. This includes large parts of the indigenous and disadvantaged Berber people. Estimates of the Berber population wary from 20 to 60 percent of the Moroccan total, with official estimates being the lowest. Unemployment is highest among Berber youths, of which many view the Arab King as a foreign imposer.

...As the tourist market in all North Africa now is crumbling-- many travellers fear Morocco could be next-- the kingdom's greatest growth and employment sector could soon be strongly impacted. A sudden growth in unemployment due to falling tourist arrivals could spark revolt.

Blogging from Fes, Matt Schumann is a Fulbright Scholar and English teacher at the S.M. Ben-Abdellah University, a graduate of Rice University and an incredibly well-informed and very perceptive observer of the Moroccan street, far more so than anyone you're going to ever hear on the utterly clueless CNN or the ideologically sociopathic Fox News. Last week he wrote about being in Morocco and watching the Moroccans watch the developments unfolding in Egypt. His conclusion, though, is that Morocco is immune to the upheavals sweeping the Arab world. I disagree but I want to offer his arguments, since they make a great deal of sense and include important information we'll need to look at when the revolution does, inevitably, come to Morocco.

It's been strange to be in Morocco during all of this. There's no lack of information. When you walk into a cafe, people are watching coverage of Egyptian protesters burning police vehicles or tearing down posters of Hosni Mubarak. But these images and ideas don't seem to be penetrating. A glance through two of the biggest newspapers, As-Sabah and Al-Masa', lead you to believe that the protests are only tangentially relevant to Moroccans. There are no attempts to apply Tunisians' and Egyptians' grievances to a Moroccan context. On Facebook, my students have posted pictures of the Egyptian protesters along with words of support and solidarity, and then proclaim their love for Morocco's King Muhammad VI. How can you identify with the protesters of two revolutions against authoritarian governments and still do that?

Why have the events in Tunisia and Egypt failed to generate the same reaction in Morocco as they have elsewhere in the Arab world?

Reading reports from the past weeks has made it clear to me that life for the average Moroccan is very different than that of a Tunisian or an Egyptian. Yes, Morocco is a poor country with high unemployment. The GDP per capita is significantly lower than Egypt's and nearly half that of Tunisia. Yet, the poverty is not oppressive. Life necessities are cheap in Morocco. People are poor but do not starve. The Moroccan government also tolerates "underground economic activities" which provide money and support for many young, uneducated Moroccans. The most notable of these is the drug trade, which according to WikiLeaks, generates more money than tourism, the largest sector of the Moroccan economy.

A second, key difference, concerns education. As one commentator pointed out, Tunisia is an exception in the Arab world in that it has a large, educated middle class. The middle class' dissatisfaction with the country's economic prospects fueled the protests that eventually led to Ben Ali's downfall. Egyptians, while not nearly as wealthy as Tunisians, are similarly educated. Both countries post literacy rates in the 70s and both protests movements have utilized social (especially Tunisia) and print media (especially Egypt) for organizational purposes. Morocco is a completely different story.

At best, 50% of Moroccans are literate and many well-educated Moroccans are ex-pats living in Europe or North America. While this may seem insignificant, I think it's a huge factor. Moroccans' illiteracy hampers the spread of information in general, and would definitely impede the organization of any type of protest movement. Additionally, the Moroccans who identify the most with Tunisia and Egypt don't live in Morocco. They've already exercised their discontent by leaving the country... [T]here is no credible opposition to the King [inside Morocco].

Morocco is a parliamentary monarchy that has a prime minister, political parties and elections. But in reality, it's something else. Parliament and the lesser bodies of government are where corrupt officials take bribes and appoint their sons- and daughters-in-law to influential posts. This corruption is obvious and derided by the Moroccan people. It's not uncommon for a Moroccan to say that the best way to make money in the country is to get into politics, but that you can only do that if you know the right people.

The King is seen as the only credible member of government despite his overwhelming and unquestionable political powers. And there's good reason for this. Royal initiatives, like infrastructure development and some social reforms, are completed on time and relatively efficiently. In other words, he gets things done when other Moroccan politicians don't. Combine that with the legacy of the Alaouite Dynasty, which has ruled Morocco for nearly four hundred years, and Muhammad VI is seen less as a despot and more as a benevolent and beloved monarch.

Now it's true that the King has the power to end the corruption that plagues parliament, the police and the military. Allowing his political opponents to profit in their subordinate positions decreases their desire for change. Additionally, their corruption draws the ire and attention of the people. So while his policies may leave something to be desired in the eyes of some Moroccans, the alternatives are much much worse.

The commentator who describes Tunisia as an exception in the Middle East may be eating his words in the next few days depending on Egypt's outcome. This doesn't mean Moroccans are happy with the state of affairs in their country. Poverty, unemployment, education, and political freedom are just a few issues that Moroccans feel must be addressed. But for now, the situation does not seem dire.

More than anything, Moroccans love stability. This is why they love the King. They tolerate the political and social status quo because it still meets their needs and because they don't have to worry about what tomorrow will bring. Because of this mindset, I don't think radical change is anything many Moroccans feel is necessary. Speaking to a Moroccan friend he said that while things here are not good, they are getting better. "Maybe five or ten years from now, but not now," he added. As long as this attitude persists, Morocco will stay stable.

Everybody loves stability. But it costs Morocco and awful lot to keep the king-- much more than he's worth, not just in my estimation but in the estimation of more and more people. When Egypt falls and things get ramped up in another country, Mohammed VI is going to be very happy his family's corporation has all the billions of dollars they've stolen from the people of Morocco separate from the state's funds. Like the rest of the kleptocrats, they and their spawn will be living on it for generations-- in other countries.