Travel Is Going To Change So Much Because Of This Pandemic

I got some bullshit e-mail bordering on the criminal from American Airlines this morning. "Caring for you is our priority-- that's why we’re introducing new steps to give you even more peace of mind when you fly." They only have one priority: profit and they could care less if you die, as long as it isn't on one of their over-stuffed planes. Their message wants suckers willing to fly to know that they have "cleaning procedures on the ground and on board [and] "innovation opportunities for the future," but decidedly not than they plan to end social distancing onboard and stuff their passengers in like sardines agin, which will absolutely make people sick, some of whom will die.

"In a first for any airline," they boasted as though it were meaningful, "we’re seeking GBAC STARTM Accreditation from the Global Biorisk Advisory Council for all of our aircraft and lounges. This accreditation demonstrates we have the proper cleaning and disinfection practices, procedures and systems in place to respond to biological threats like COVID-19. Beginning June 30, we’ll ask all travelers during the check-in process to certify they have been free of COVID-19 symptoms for the past 14 days. This is in addition to requiring all travelers on board to wear a face covering." Certify? Pinky-swear?

Yesterday, writing for the Washington Post, Hannah Sampson reported that "After capping the number of people on flights since April, American Airlines announced Friday that its planes will likely be full in a few days." No wonder the E.U. has decided to ban Americans from coming back to Europe! That should hurt the airlines which-- let's face it-- deserve to be hurt.

American sent customers the bullshit above. But in their press release to the media, they admitted exactly what they're up to: "As more people continue to travel, customers may notice that flights are booked to capacity starting July 1. American will continue to notify customers and allow them to move to more open flights when available, all without incurring any cost." I was glad read that other customers were as angry as I was (even though I have no plans to fly until it's safe to-- which it is not at this point, unless you don't find getting sick.)

“I find it absolutely appalling you chose to sell the middle row seats as Covid numbers continue to spike,” one Twitter user wrote in a message directed to the airline. “I am loyal to AA but clearly you are not concerned with the safety of the public. Looks like I will fly delta since they removed the middle row. EXPECTED BETTER!”

Earlier this week, the union that represents American’s pilots pushed a plan that would have the government buy enough seats on each flights so no one would have to sit next to a stranger.

“Passengers would be encouraged to fly more thanks to uniform social distancing, airlines would be encouraged to operate more flights, and the government would ensure preservation of critical transportation infrastructure and related jobs,” the Allied Pilots Association proposed.

United said in mid-May that it would “avoid where possible seating customers next to each other” but could make no guarantees. Instead, the airline said at the time that it would “do our best” to contact travelers on flights that were expected to be close to full in case they wanted to rebook on another flight.

United spokesman Charles Hobart said in an email that the policy would stay in place through July 31, but he confirmed that the carrier does not block middle or adjacent seats.

Delta is still blocking middle seats and has committed to capping seating at 50 or 60 percent, depending on the part of the plane-- at least through Sept. 30. Southwest Airlines is blocking about a third of the seats on its planes from being booked, which it says allows for middle seats to stay open. That cap is also in place until at least Sept. 30.

JetBlue said it would continue blocking all middle seats on larger planes and aisle seats on smaller aircraft through at least July 31.

“You’re going to definitely have to sit next to a stranger again, I’m afraid, on a plane,” JetBlue chief executive Robin Hayes said during a Washington Post Live discussion in late May. “Because [of] the economics of our industry, most airlines have a break-even load factor of 75 to 80 percent, so clearly capping flights at 55 to 60 percent, which is what we’re doing right now … is not sustainable.”

Government mandates the percentage of restaurant seats that can be filled; why not airplanes? Last week, Sampson did another Post piece, 11 Ways The Pandemic Will Change Travel. Some of it doesn't sound so bad-- at least not to me:

Expect fewer crowds and experiences at tourist magnets

Theme parks, museums and iconic landmarks are known for drawing a crowd. But as they reopen and look to the future, those crowds are expected to be much smaller-- and more controlled.

In revealing plans to welcome visitors back this month and next, operators of some of the world’s largest theme parks painted a picture of what they expect a coronavirus-era “normal” to look like inside their gates. The scene: mandatory temperature checks; visitors and crew in masks; rides, lines and seats spaced to allow for social distancing; and characters that interact from afar, if at all.

“In preparing to reopen during this unusual time, we have to manage our theme parks in a very different way from what we’ve known before,” the Walt Disney Co. said in a statement announcing plans for a phased reopening of its Florida parks starting July 11.

At its Disney Springs shopping complex in central Florida, which started to reopen in May, Star Wars Stormtroopers keep watch from a balcony and issue warnings to visitors about wearing masks and staying distanced.

SeaWorld Orlando said it would modify some animal interactions, one of the park’s signature offerings. Universal Orlando Resort announced it would move to virtual lines for some attractions. Disney is doing away with fireworks shows and parades for now. And Six Flags said all parks would move to an online reservation system to manage how many people could attend and assign guests staggered arrival times.

Museums, too, are trying to envision a future where visitors will feel safe. The Smithsonian museums and the National Zoo in Washington, which drew more than 22 million visits last year, have not announced reopening dates, but plans call for only a few to open at first.

Capacity will be limited, and there may be more staff on hand to keep people appropriately distanced from each other. Face masks for everyone and cleaning throughout the day are also expected.

In Paris, the Louvre-- which has long struggled with overcrowding-- will require all visitors to book a time slot once the museum opens on July 6...

Airlines will have to balance safety and profits

Unlike many travel companies, airlines have continued to operate throughout the pandemic, although at drastically reduced numbers. Practices they have adopted over the past few months are likely to shape the future of flying, though some are certainly short-term fixes.

Blocking off some seats on planes or limiting the number of tickets sold, for example, is unlikely to be the status quo as more people start to fly. Such measures aren’t even guaranteed today across the board.

“You’re going to definitely have to sit next to a stranger again, I’m afraid, on a plane,” JetBlue chief executive Robin Hayes said during a Washington Post Live discussion last month. “Because [of] the economics of our industry, most airlines have a break-even load factor of 75 to 80 percent, so clearly capping flights at 55 to 60 percent, which is what we’re doing right now through July 6, is not sustainable.”

He said he believes airlines will need to make it easier in the future for travelers to change their flights-- a decision that, before the pandemic, came with hefty fees at most carriers.

“Because it’s not ever really going to be acceptable, I don’t think, for someone who is unwell to feel that they’re being made to fly,” he said.

Airlines are already requiring passengers and employees to wear masks, cutting food and beverage service during flights, and increasing how often they clean. Some have started asking travelers to fill out health questionnaires and checking passengers’ temperatures, but there is a broader push to have federal authorities take over those checks.

...Airports are also making changes, and the pandemic could force an overhaul of the way passengers move through the facilities, said Ty Osbaugh, the aviation leader at architecture firm Gensler.

He said he would not be surprised to see significantly more biometric screening and touchless elements within the next six to eight months. He envisioned a system that could scan his face, direct him to a TSA lane and use biometrics to let him buy anything in the airport without taking his wallet out.

“If I could go from curb to gate without physically touching anything, it kind of solves some of the pandemic issues,” he said. “I think there’s a lot of people who would prefer to do that.”

Wary travelers will stay closer to home

Before Americans start hopping on long flights or jetting around the world, experts believe they will first start venturing out closer to home.

Travel insurance comparison site Squaremouth said that based on travel insurance policies purchased through its site between April 1 and May 10 for travel this summer, domestic trips account for 48 percent of planned summer travel, an increase from 15 percent last year. And booking site Travelocity noted that most hotel bookings are within 100 miles of where travelers live.

“Our research actually says that leisure travel is going to be among the first to come back,” said Roger Dow, the chief executive of the U.S. Travel Association, in a media call last month. “It’ll be drive and shorter flights regionally.”

To create consistency across travel companies in the United States, the association released a set of guidelines last month that called for revamping public spaces to allow for physical distancing, installing barriers, moving toward touchless technology and stepping up sanitation.

But travelers within the United States should not expect consistency in the near term when trying to visit other states. Some places, including Hawaii and Maine, are either requiring most visitors to quarantine for two weeks after arriving or to show proof of a negative covid-19 test. And local rules about what can and can’t be open, and how many people can gather, could vary from city to city.

“Part of re-opening and recovery means that destinations, attractions, hotels, airlines, etc. will need to demonstrate to potential visitors that they are doing everything they can to minimize the risk as they travel to and once they are in the destination by following best practices,” Amir Eylon, the chief executive of tourism-focused consultancy Longwoods International, said in an email. “They will also need to demonstrate to the local residents, who may be wary, that they are asking visitors to ‘play by the rules.’”

Fewer travelers could mean more expensive travel abroad

While it can feel like airlines charge passengers for everything from choosing a seat to checking a bag, in reality, deregulation lowered the cost per mile for flying, making international travel more accessible than ever before.

But some worry that the impact of the pandemic on airlines may translate to less travelers flying abroad, and, as a result, will make other parts of international travel more expensive.

“If the airlines can only put half as many people on the plane, it’s going to cost a whole double,” says Rick Steves, the Washington-state-based European travel expert known for his guidebook series, public television and radio shows, and travel company that takes more than 30,000 people to Europe in a typical year. “I can afford it, but many travelers cannot. Then travel becomes an activity just for wealthy people.”

The issue is not only limited to airlines. Steves fears that by not being able to “pack the house,” establishments that make travel special such as mom-and-pop restaurants, hotels and entertainment venues will have to raise their prices to make up for the limited headcount.

Many cities around the world depend on international tourism and have felt the hit during the pandemic. According to the United Nations World Tourism Organization (UNWTO), the decline in international tourism for the rest of 2020 could translate to $910 billion to $1.2 trillion in lost revenue for the industry.

...The not-so-socially distant elements of international travel that we love so much seem impossible to fully embrace while covid-19 remains without a vaccine. Will we get over virus fears and return to travel joys, such as eating street food in Bangkok, dancing in crowded Tel Aviv nightclubs or staying in a South African hostel with bunk beds?

Steves is confident those beloved aspects of going abroad will make a return after the pandemic subsides.

“You go to an Irish pub to sit next to a stranger and drink beer. You go to France to have your cheeks kissed,” he said. “I think that’s going to come back, but it’s gonna be a while.”

Buffets out, temperature checks in when ships return to sea

Two big questions have been swirling around the cruise industry since operators halted sailings in mid-March: When will ships take passengers back to sea? And what will cruising look like in the future?

While the world’s largest companies have not shared comprehensive details yet on what cruisers should expect, some things are clear: Cruise ships will not return to the sea all at once. When they do, they probably will not be as packed as they were in pre-coronavirus days. Temperature screenings, while incapable of catching asymptomatic travelers, will probably become the norm. The old-fashioned, dish-it-yourself buffet is expected to become a relic. Construction of new ships will almost certainly be delayed, and itineraries could be tweaked for a while.

...The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has said cruise line plans must include temperature checks, medical screenings, testing for the coronavirus and social distancing protocols.

...Still unclear: How many people will be eager to set sail again, given the global toll of the virus and the high-profile outbreaks on ships. But cruise executives say they are optimistic based on bookings for 2021.

“I think in the early going, we have plenty of people who love cruising who will be able to fill the ships that will be available at the time,” Carnival Corp. chief executive Arnold Donald said in April.

Relocation will increase demand for home rentals

During the pandemic, many companies and their workforces learned productivity was possible outside of the office. Now that working remotely has entered the mainstream, we may see a new trend of people taking longer trips that combine work and pleasure.

"A lot of people have gotten comfortable that they don’t have to squeeze a nine-day vacation into six. They can take the extra days and maybe work a couple half-days remotely,” said vacation-rental company Vrbo president Jeff Hurst. "I do think we’re going to start to see people be more creative on how they think about working from any house, as opposed to just their own house, or any destination as opposed [to] from just their office.”

It’s a trend Airbnb chief executive Brian Chesky believes was already in motion.

“I had assumed over the course of 20 years that a generation of people would not be tethered to their city ... that people will realize over the course of working more remote, they could kind of live anywhere,” Chesky said. “I never thought that decades would happen in two months.”

In April, Airbnb added a new feature on its homepage advertising “monthly stays” to accommodate the growing interest of long-term travel. At the peak of the pandemic shutdowns, about 40 percent of Airbnb’s bookings were long-term.

That number has dropped since; however, Chesky predicts travelers’ interest in long-term stays will continue to grow with time. “I couldn’t overstate this enough; I think this is a very big, profound shift," he said.

The long-term travel trend will be more beneficial for home rentals than hotels, as they offer travelers a more comfortable stay at a more affordable price. An Airbnb with a kitchen and a garage is more approachable for day-to-day living than a 400-room hotel where a traveler is bound to room service and outside restaurants.

Another major change in the vacation rental market since the pandemic began has been an overhaul of cleaning protocols. Once upon a time, the cleanliness star rating on an Airbnb review was just another detail travelers checked before booking a vacation rental. Then coronavirus redefined the importance of cleanliness.

Companies such as Airbnb and Vrbo created new cleaning procedures for hosts to follow in the pandemic. These enhanced sanitation steps were designed to not only keep travelers safe, but also to reassure them that it’s okay to travel again. And unlike emergency cancellation policies put into place during the pandemic, some experts believe this new emphasis on sanitation will extend into the future.

“COVID-19 has heightened consumer awareness around cleanliness, which is why we released our cleanliness guidelines to educate vacation homeowners, property managers and travelers about how vacation rentals should be cleaned and disinfected,” Hurst said. “As long as travelers are finding the information provided by our partners helpful, there’s no reason for it to go away.”

Interest in private travel is here to stay

The pandemic has created a greater demand for experiences away from crowds. Until a coronavirus vaccine is found, that preference for private travel will probably continue.

According to a U.S. Travel Association survey conducted in May, people feel more comfortable traveling in personal vehicles and staying in vacation rentals than they do taking flights, taking cruises and staying in hotels. Interest in RVs has skyrocketed.

Dow, of the U.S. Travel Association, predicts the pandemic will renew interest in the Great American Road Trip, with a particular focus on the outdoors, where travelers are less likely to face crowds.

“I think you’re going to see that Montana, South Dakota and North Dakota, the more rural places, get a huge spike in travel,” Dow said.

Small restaurants and bars may be decimated for good

...Many independently owned restaurants and bars, hallmarks of having a local experience while traveling, will not be able to restart at all. Investment bank UBS predicted in April that up to one in five restaurants in the United States may close permanently.

These small businesses are fighting herculean battles to stay in business during the pandemic. When owners aren’t scrambling to keep up with new government requirements or pivoting business models (like turning into grocery stores or coming up with new takeout concepts), they’re figuring out how to pay employees and mounting bills.

“I think the really fine dining restaurants will remain as is, the sort of middle ground of restaurants will shrink, and the fast-casual places like Shake Shack will stay afloat,” said Kat Odell, a food and travel writer and author who eats at about 400 to 500 restaurants per year.

...How tourism rebounds will also play a role in restaurants’ recovery, particularly in cities such as New York and Los Angeles that rely on patronage from travelers as well as locals. Will the independent restaurant landscape remain vibrant, or become dominated by the chains that could afford to weather this storm?...

Cleaning and contact-free technology will be top priorities

Hotels are elevating a couple of key amenities these days: cleanliness and health-consciousness. That means the things that might have mattered before-- restaurants, pools, gyms, bars, make-your-own-waffle stations-- are taking a back seat.

At the same time, experts say hotels have a difficult balancing act to pull off: While prioritizing health and safety, they still need to make visitors feel comfortable and at home.

“The challenge will be how do we make sure we’re not conveying reminders of the virus,” said Kate Walsh, the dean of Cornell University’s School of Hotel Administration.”We want to convey that this is a sanitized and healthy place, but we don’t want it to feel so clinical like you’re entering a hospital.”

Guests should expect to see more frequent cleaning, transparent shields, abundant hand sanitizers, reminders about distancing and lobbies reconfigured to create more space. They should also expect to interact with fewer workers as hotels encourage people to check in online and use their phones as room keys.

“The use of technology to reduce direct contact with guests, lobby population and front desk queue is encouraged, where feasible,” guidelines from the American Hotel & Lodging Association state. “In addition, contactless payment processes are encouraged, and when not available, employees should minimize contact as much as possible.”

The association also recommends that housekeepers should not enter rooms during a stay unless they are asked to do so or get approval from guests. All that separation could make it difficult for hotels to deliver the welcoming atmosphere they promise.

“We’re distancing the staff from the guest, and the heart of hospitality is conveying warmth and being taken care of,” Walsh said. “How do you do that in a distanced way?”

She said she expects to see hotels adapt to the times by using outdoor space more creatively, removing loose items such as menus, minibar goods and pens from rooms, and either making workout equipment available in guest rooms or letting guests reserve private gym time. Room service will be of the knock-and-drop variety, while restaurants-- which will need to abide by local and state capacity guidelines-- are expected to offer more grab-and-go options.

Frank Lavey, the senior vice president of global operations for Hyatt, said in an email that the company is listening to guests and loyalty members to get a sense of what matters most to them when they return.

“Health and safety is a top priority, but there is also the need for connection, culture and new experiences,” he said. “As the world begins to reopen, we are readying ourselves to help people do what they’re longing to do-- get back on the road to explore new places, feel the excitement of reconnecting with those they miss, destress and re-energize-- once again experience the joy of travel, and do so safely.”

Programs will introduce new, temporary perks

When the pandemic struck, frequent travelers wondered what would happen to their loyalty program standings. The complicated system of miles, rewards programs, points and statuses relies on people traveling and spending money using travel credit cards. But with most people not traveling, does the system crumble?

According to loyalty program experts, that answer is no.

“Loyalty programs are huge cost centers for airlines and hotels,” said Brian Kelly, the founder and chief executive of the Points Guy, a site that offers advice on those types of perks.

Airlines and hotels generate billions of dollars in revenue from selling miles and points to credit card companies. Some worry that because the status of travel is in limbo, travel perks won’t be as powerful of an incentive for consumers to join and use branded travel credit cards. But that shouldn’t be a major issue.

“They’re trying to figure out ways to still get people to care about the miles, especially if they’re not flying,” said René de Lambert, founder of the travel blog, RenesPoints.

Kelly and Lambert say travel brands are sustaining consumer interest by offering new incentives, like having everyday spending count toward lifetime elite statuses, allowing travel loyalty points be redeemed for non-travel purchases and increasing the number of award seats on flights.

According to American Express data reported by Wirecutter, 134 percent more American Express Membership Rewards were redeemed for non-travel purposes from mid-March to mid-April compared to that time frame in 2019.

These changes may not hold over after the pandemic, Kelly said, so they are going to benefit people who make the most of them in the near future.

“You better believe there will be people buying cheap flights to get a status that they never would have been able to achieve otherwise,” he said. “There will be people making out like bandits.”

Large gatherings will creep back with caution-- if at all

Traveling for the express purpose of interacting with other people-- dozens, hundreds or even thousands-- is especially fraught now. It’s still not clear what conferences, trade shows, political and fan conventions, concerts and festivals will look like in the coming months and years, if they happen at all.

High-profile events such as SXSW, the Cannes Film Festival and the 2020 Summer Olympics have all been canceled or postponed. Most Republican National Convention festivities were moved from Charlotte to Jacksonville, Fla., after North Carolina officials called for a downsized event with safety precautions. The Democratic National Convention appears to be moving toward a scaled-back or virtual event.

Julius Solaris, the editor of EventMB, which focuses on business meetings and events, said the first of such gatherings will probably be geared toward local audiences in large cities, rather than events that draw national and international crowds.

Those early meetings, he said, should be shorter-- a single day rather than several, with sessions that last no longer than 30 minutes. Solaris said attendance will need to be slashed so there’s enough room to keep people distanced in meeting rooms. All of those conditions could make traditional events too costly to put on at all.

“It’s just not going to be profitable for some events,” he said. “They’re not going to break even.”

Solaris said he anticipates seeing some hybrids, which may include some people together in person while others participate virtually.

Festivals and outdoor events still face huge challenges as many states have limits on how many people can gather, as well as rules about social distancing. Events such as city art festivals, parades and community runs would be too difficult or pointless to operate under such rules.

“We aren’t a model that you can change up,” said Steve Schmader, the president and chief executive of the International Festivals & Events Association. “The model of getting people together in your community is the model.”

He wondered how it would be possible to do temperature checks along a parade route, or make sure that everyone watching stayed six feet apart.

“We don’t have the answers to that,” Schmader said. “We’re all going through a master’s class we didn’t ask to sign up for.”

Is Air Travel Back? Not For Me

I've only been to the Bahamas once; I didn't like it. The trip was to visit the legendary, now shuttered, Compass Point Studios in Nassau, where one of our bands, the Ocean Blue, was recording Beneath the Rhythm and Sound late in the summer of 1993. It was a difficult time for the band, who came from a very conservative religious fundamentalist background and had been coming to grips with the fact that one of its key members had decided to eschew the closet and embrace his homosexuality. He had written the band's only real hit and was the member most liked by the media. But the other band members-- who had once all given each other copies of the newly released Rush Limbaugh book as Christmas presents-- couldn't come to terms with one of them being gay. They told him he had to stop talking with the media and representing the band. And then they told him that Beneath the Rhythm and Sound would be the last time they would be working together, after having been friends since childhood.

I was unaware of that when I got to Nassau for the album playback. Afterwards the studio managers had a barbeque at the pool as a kind of celebration. Suddenly their 5 year old son was nowhere to be seen. Then he was seen-- at the bottom of the pool. Steve, the Ocean Blue member being thrown out of the band, had been a lifeguard. He dove in, rescued the kid and resuscitated him... tears of joy everywhere. One of the other band members came over to me. He seemed confused. "How," he asked me, seriously, referring to Steve, "could he be doing Satan's work and God's work at the same time?"

The was both the Ocean Blue's last album for Sire Records and my last visit to the Bahamas, forever tainted in my mind by the whole drama. And I'm not a big fan of beach resort places. There have been 103 COVID cases and 11 deaths, just 262 cases per million people, extremely low. The least impacted U.S. states have far more cases per million:

• Alaska- 904 per million
• Montana- 570 per million
• Hawaii- 514 per million

In fact, the Bahamas are doing so well that they're reopening for business July1. The government will allow commercial airlines, hotels and vacation rentals as well as taxis and buses. But... pre-travel requirements include:

• COVID-19 RT-PCR negative test result no older than 10 days, ready to be handed to Customs & Immigration officials upon arrival.
• Customs & Immigration forms that must be filled out and printed prior to arrival.
• A Travel Health Card that must be filled out prior to travel.

There are lots of safety requirements for tourists-- temperature screenings at places such as airports; beach chairs spaced 6 feet apart; and no more buffets at resorts. Incoming travelers are will be advised to adhere to social distancing guidelines and to routinely bring face masks just as they would bring their swimsuits and sunscreen."

According the USA Today, "Bahamians derive the bulk of their income from tourism. Fishing, diving and soaking up the sun reportedly generates $5.7 billion for the economy. In 2018, over 590,000 boaters visited the Bahamas. About 3.2 million tourists were from the U.S., contributing an estimated $1.3 billion to the economy.

The Prime Minister announced the opening will be reversed if cases spike: "It will be adjusted if we see a deterioration of the COVID-19 infection trends or if we’ve determined that the protocols and procedures are not in place sufficiently to warrant this opening."

Badge of Honor by Nancy Ohanian

The airlines were so desperate for customers that they refused to ban traveller who wouldn't wear masks, endangering the other passengers and the staff. This afternoon, the Washington Post reported this might change. "Airlines for America, a trade organization, said a group of major American airlines will begin 'vigorously' enforcing face-covering policies after reports of travelers not being held to the safety standard. Last month, several airlines acknowledged that they had told crew members to avoid escalating any confrontations in the air over mask violations and described various levels of enforcement. Delta, Southwest, United Airlines, American Airlines, JetBlue and others will 'clearly articulate' their face-covering policy to passengers and may require customers to acknowledge the policy at check-in, the association announced Monday on behalf of the member companies. If passengers don’t comply, carriers can implement their own consequences, which could include suspension of flying privileges. 'U.S. airlines are very serious about requiring face coverings on their flights,' Nicholas E. Calio, the group’s president and chief executive, wrote in the statement. That's completely and demonstrably untrue and anyone who catches COVID on a plane would have to be crazy not to sue the airline. Also noteworthy: "The use of face masks at airports has been sporadic, according to reports from across the country."

Anyone thinking about boarding a plane for Tulsa this week to attend the COVID-spreading Trump rally there? I'd advise against it; just drink the bleach. Alan Grayson watches air travel carefully and has been telling me there are just 20% of flights taking off these days compared to last year. Last week he sent me this e-mail: "Down 81% yesterday from a year ago."

He started on March 22 but I couldn't figure out how to take a photo of his chart that was that long. The low point was on my sister's birthday, April 16: 95,085 flights vs. 2,616,158 flights the year before (approximately 3.6%). It's been slowly ticking up since.

Yesterday, Josh Barro, writing for New York Magazine, noted that Air Travel Is Rebounding Strongly-- But Likely To Remain Well Below Pre-COVID Levels. "Air travel," he wrote, "is coming back." Really? I don't recall a summer I haven't been abroad since... 1968. I'm a frequent flyer and I can't imagine getting on a plane, as much as I might want to be in Bali or the Dordogne region of France, where we were planning to spend June.

Barro wrote that last Thursday the TSA "screened 502,000 passengers, the first time travelers throughout have exceeded half a million since March 21. By ordinary measures, this is dismal volume-- on a typical spring day last year, between 2 million and 2.5 million passengers passed through TSA checkpoints-- but it’s way up from the depths of April, when there were several days with fewer than 100,000 travelers, volumes not typically seen since the 1950s.

Airlines have been responding to this trend by beefing up their schedules, especially for domestic travel. American Airlines announced earlier this month that its domestic schedule for July will offer 45 percent less capacity than last July’s-- for comparison, May’s domestic schedule entailed an 80 percent year-over-year reduction. Rising passenger volumes also mean airlines have been losing less money every day than they expected to lose as of April, one of the factors recently pushing up airline stock prices (though they are down Monday morning).

As with so much of the economy, a key question for the airline industry is how long this better-than-expected trend will continue. A fraction of customers are demonstrating their eagerness to resume travel as soon as it is feasible. Forty-four percent of respondents to an ABC–Ipsos poll conducted this week said they were willing to fly at this time-- up from 29 percent in May, but still seriously depressed. And travel volumes are not just a question of willingness, but also of interest. Certain activities that motivate air travel-- conventions, weddings, festivals, nightlife, sporting events, even business meetings-- are unlikely to return in force until there is a widely distributed vaccine or a highly effective therapeutic treatment. And while consumers have been surprisingly eager to spend in certain areas, consumers whose own jobs and businesses are slow to return to normal may be disinclined to spend on leisure travel. Businesses dealing with lost revenues have found cessation of business travel to be one important area of cost reduction and may themselves be slow to resume it.

For this reason, airlines have been signaling to their workers that some fraction of the current service reductions are likely to be persistent-- and will require a permanent shrinking of aircraft fleets and of staffing. CARES Act financial subsidies generally require airlines to maintain staffing levels through September 30, but airlines have been warning of potential layoffs after that and have been offering voluntary buyouts and early retirement packages to workers. One common feature of these offers has been letting workers retain free-flying benefits for extended periods after leaving their jobs-- a benefit that may be more valuable in upcoming years if planes have more unsold seats available for nonrevenue travel.

Airlines are doing their part to lure customers back. American says this will be the “summer of deals,” and there are a lot of low airfares out there. But I can’t stop thinking about something the economist Jason Furman pointed out to me last month about airfares in the time of the coronavirus and “hedonic adjustments.” Hedonic adjustment is the process of accounting for changes in product and service quality when calculating inflation. If the new iPhone has a better battery life than the old iPhone, then part of the phone-price increase should be attributed to improved quality, not inflation. So how should we think about the changing quality of air travel-- if there are no restaurants open in New York, no Broadway shows, nobody willing to take an in-person business meeting with you, doesn’t that all reduce the product quality of a plane ticket to New York? Add the increased difficulty of getting a decent cocktail at the airport and the risk of contracting a deadly disease, and it’s easy to see why it’s so hard to sell airline tickets right now. Just because something is cheap doesn’t mean it’s a deal. And some of those factors reducing the quality of air travel are likely to persist for a year or longer.

The CARES Act was designed to prevent the airlines from shrinking in an undesirable way-- from running out of money this spring or summer, laying off staff and shedding planes for which demand would return by this fall. And as we see, some of that demand is returning pretty robustly. But part of what we are seeing is a longer-run drop in demand that will require a materially smaller airline sector for a period of several years as the economy recovers. Over the rest of the year we will get a better sense of how large a part that is that won’t return soon.

If You Want To Take A Trip During The Pandemic, Try Acid Or Peyote

In early February-- recently back from Thailand and having just canceled a summer trip to the Dordogne region of France-- I wrote a coronavirus travel post, much of it a warning about air travel. Hard to believe only month and a half has passed.

Now we find ourselves in a situation with airlines cancelling flights and governments closing borders and enforcing quarantines. Thousands of Americans are stranded overseas-- Senate Intel chair Richard Burr (R-NC) warned campaign donors but not the public of what was coming-- and the State Department has ruled out rescue flights. Basically, they have no option but to wait, probably for months before they can get home.

On Thursday, the State Department a global Level 4 travel advisory. That's as dire as it gets; there is no Level 5. The State Department is basically telling all Americans not to travel abroad at all and telling Americans who are abroad to either come home immediately-- mostly impossible-- or to "shelter in place." No new passports are being issued other than to people with "life or death emergencies." These are the latest dozen tweets from the Department's travel section-- all from this morning:

• Due to #COVID19 related public health measures, effective March 20, passport agencies will only accept applications from customers with life-or-death emergencies who plan to travel within 72 hours. Some passport acceptance facilities may also suspend services. Due to #COVID19 related operational changes, we will not offer expedited passport service on or after March 20 and routine processing (normally 6-8 weeks) may be delayed. More information
• #Mauritius: Mauritius has barred admission to all travelers, including nationals, as of Mar. 19, GMT. U.S. citizens considering returning to the US are urged to work with their airlines to make travel arrangements while flights are still available. more
• #SouthAfrica: On March 18, South Africa barred admission to travelers who have recently visited the United States, Italy, Iran, South Korea, Spain, Germany, the United Kingdom, and China. All US citizen visitors must have visas prior to arrival to enter. more
• #Croatia: All travelers barred from admission except Croatian citizens returning home, foreign citizens departing to their home countries, diplomats, law enforcement, medical workers, controlled shipments of goods, and others on a case by case basis. more
• #Angola: The Government of Angola announced that all international flights will be cancelled effective March 20. US citizens who are considering returning to the US are urged to work with airlines to make arrangements while flights are still available. more
• #Bulgaria: The Bulgarian government has banned the entry of third-country (non-EU) nationals, including U.S. citizens, into the country from March 20 to April 17. This includes all border crossing points and aviation, maritime, rail, and road. more
• #Laos: The Government of Laos announced the suspension of the issuance of visas on arrival, visas at Lao Diplomatic Missions, and eVisas, as well as visa exemption programs. These restrictions are scheduled to be in place for 30 days starting March 20. more
• #Bermuda: Effective March 20, at 11:59pm, L.F. Wade Airport will close for incoming passenger flights for 2 weeks. Only returning residents will be allowed on flights arriving March 19 & 20. If departing, work with airlines while flights still available. more
• #PapuaNewGuinea: Any traveler who has been to or transited through the United States, or any other restricted place, in the 14 days prior to their intended arrival will not be permitted to enter the country. Other restricted places listed here: more
• #Bermuda: Several airlines have reduced or suspended flight services between Bermuda and the US. US citizens who are considering returning to the United States are urged to work with their airlines to make travel arrangements while flights are available. more
• #Colombia: The Mayor of Bogota announced a drill from March 20-23 during which all people are ordered to stay off the streets or else face possible fines. Additionally, airlines have begun curtailing or ceasing operations in Colombia. more
• #Madagascar: All international flights will be cancelled effective March 20, 2020. The Government of Madagascar has also announced cruise ships may not stop in Madagascar. more

This was from Wednesday-- one day ago:

#Ethiopia: Rise in anti-foreigner sentiment revolving around the announcement of COVID-19 in Ethiopia. Reports indicate that foreigners have been attacked with stones, denied transportation services, spat on, chased on foot, and accused of being infected. more

As I mentioned Wednesday, Thailand is a heavily tourism-dependent country. Yesterday, the Associated Press reported that "Thailand's government is imposing stricter rules on international travel that require people arriving from all countries to have health certificates stating they do not have the coronavirus, along with medical insurance covering the disease. The measures fall short of the total bans on international flights many countries have enacted, but are expected to sharply cut the number of visitors. Thailand has been reluctant to endanger its large tourism industry, which accounts for about 12% of its economy, according to official figures."

The decision comes just two days after the government announced that medical certificates and insurance would be required only for people arriving from “disease infected zones”-- South Korea, China, Macao, Hong Kong, Italy and Iran-- or who had visited "ongoing local transmission areas"-- the United States, parts of Japan, Britain and eight other European countries.

The health certificates now required for all arrivals must be issued within 72 hours of departure, and the insurance must cover $100,000 in medical costs.

Thai citizens also need to have health certificates but not insurance policies. In addition they will have to self-quarantine for 14 days. Quarantine rules for arriving foreigners remain unclear.

"Today we are trying to block those who bring the disease into Thailand, so that's why I tell you that everyone who is about to enter Thailand should have a health certificate," Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha said. "That is an extension from four countries and two territories, but today we need it from every country as we attempt to control the outbreak in the country and lower the number of infected people as much as we can.

" Thailand on Thursday reported 60 new confirmed cases of the virus, bringing its total to 272. It has registered one death and discharged 42 recovered patients.

On Tuesday the government announced a raft of measures to combat the virus, including postponing a major holiday and shutting down schools nationwide. Provincial governors have been empowered to close venues where people gather, including massage parlors, entertainment places, gyms and sports venues. The popular tourist destination of Phuket on Thursday joined Bangkok and other provinces in applying such restrictions.

Postponing the annual public holiday of Songkran is meant to discourage the gathering and movement of large numbers of people. Millions of Thais normally travel from the big cities where they work to their hometowns during the three-day holiday to celebrate the traditional New Year. It will be rescheduled later this year.

Egypt is also heavily dependent on tourism (3rd biggest source of income)-- or at least they were until the industry evaporated entirely. The airports are shut down and the tourism minister announced he expects to lose a billion dollars a month for as long as there is an emergency situation.

On Wednesday, Forbes' travel write Christopher Elliott tried to look into the future of travel post-coronavirus but starts off with the absurd assumption that things may be headed back to normal in May. And he isn't the only one living in a fantasy world of everything getting back to normal.

Bill Patton wants to know what travel will be like after coronavirus. He and his family of 10 are headed to Antibes, France, in late May to celebrate their 50th anniversary. They've tried to cancel because of the coronavirus, but so far neither their airline or their vacation rental company will offer a refund.

"Our doctor advises we do not travel under the coronavirus conditions," says Patton, who is 76 and has a history of diabetes, allergies and asthma.

So what will France be like in May? What will travel be like after the coronavirus peaks? Will anyone be traveling at all?

A new survey suggests travel is alive and well. More than half of Americans (58%) are planning to travel between May and September 2020, as long as their destinations aren't in quarantine. But they're being careful. A quarter of participants will try to avoid big cities and public transportation, and 21% will choose domestic travel, according to the survey conducted by LuggageHero.

"Demand will come back stronger than ever once the situation is over," says Jannik Lawaetz, LuggageHero's CEO.

Here's how people will travel after the coronavirus:

1- They'll stay in the country. International travel will fall out of favor as people stay closer to the safety of home.

2- They won't travel far from home. "Staycations" and road trips will be favored over flying or cruising.

3- They'll make it quick. A softer economy will mean the traditional two-week summer vacation could turn into a long weekend. 

What will my destination be like this spring?

I know what Southern France is like now because I'm there.

I detoured to Nice, France, on my way to Italy and found an apartment on Vrbo to wait out the virus. It was a little scary at first. All the cafés and restaurants closed. There are police checkpoints in the streets.

But there's also a sense of normalcy and perspective that seems to be lacking in the United States. After all, France has survived its fair share of pandemics and world wars. People here are taking this crisis in stride and are confident it will be over soon-- certainly by the time Patton and his family arrive here.

The borders to Europe are closed for the next 30 days in an effort to contain the coronavirus. After that, things will probably return to normal quickly. By May, Patton and his family might really need that vacation in southern France.

For anyone else with spring travel plans, experts say the outlook is pretty decent. If the borders open up, your destination will happily welcome you.

But that's a big "if."

Will the travel industry come back from coronavirus?

Ask experts and they'll tell you that travel will come back quickly. Probably faster than anyone expects.

"Despite the challenges, it won’t be this way forever," says John Lovell, president of leisure travel and supplier relations and networks at Travel Leaders Group. "Travel and tourism is a highly resilient industry that has come back again and again from diseases and natural disasters."

Industry watchers like Lovell predict a quick bounce back for tourism, despite the current doom-and-gloom headlines. They point out that travel rebounded quickly after other pandemics and disasters, including 9/11.

"You have to assess your own risk tolerance, take reasonable and prudent precautions, and make smart decisions about your travel," he adds. "Right now, there are amazing travel deals to destinations all over the world."

What will travel be like after coronavirus?

Chances are, your destination will immediately begin an aggressive coronavirus recovery program the moment the "all clear" signal is given. That's the prediction of Wayne Smith, chairman of the Department of Hospitality and Tourism Management at the College of Charleston.

"Most destinations will institute a recovery strategy in which discounts may be a part of the overall enticement to return to travel," he says.

But don't look for deep discounts. Smith says the best strategies may not necessarily have cheaper prices but to offer more value.

"Examples I have seen in the past would be a hotel offering free meals with room purchase and maybe even packaging in attraction tickets," he says. "Instead of looking for the cheapest price, I would be looking for the best value. There are going to be plenty of high-value travel packages available."

Some parts of the travel industry might not survive

But it'll be a difficult, and maybe impossible, recovery for parts of the travel industry.

"It's going to be a long recovery," says Sophie Anderson, a marketing manager at Cruise Agency Australia, an Australian travel agency that specializes in cruises. "There are going to be collapses and bankruptcies when it's all over. At least one or two cruise lines might finally sink."

Anderson says for consumers there will be a silver lining-- cruises will be a bargain for the foreseeable future. Of course, if airlines, hotels and cruise lines start to go under, the lower prices will be irrelevant.

That's the most long-lasting-- and potentially disruptive-- effect on travel. Coronavirus will almost certainly claim several well-known travel brands, according to experts.

Yes, even with government bailouts. It's inevitable.

"History tells us that there will be fewer players in the wake of this event," says Paul Metselaar, chairman of Ovation Travel Group. "In the United Kingdom, we have already seen the demise of Flybe, and other carriers are at risk. It is entirely plausible that there will be other casualties in other segments as well.

Here are a few tips for traveling after the coronavirus outbreak

No question about it, people will travel after the coronavirus. But how?

Look for deals but focus on value. Assuming the coronavirus crisis is over, don't hesitate to book if you find a bargain for late spring or summer. But don't focus exclusively on price. Instead, look at the overall value of the deal. Are they throwing in attraction tickets or including meals?

Focus on longevity. Stay away from too-good-to-be-true offers from unknown operators. Chances are, these are fire sales from desperate companies on the verge of bankruptcy. Focus on well-known brands that are financially stable.

Consider travel insurance. A reputable insurance policy will protect you if an operator goes out of business. If you can't find a good policy, use a credit card to make your purchase. It can also offer protections from financial insolvency.

Bottom line: Travel will continue after the coronavirus outbreak. The industry will return sooner than you think, and with some great deals.

That swell bottom line ending to the piece indicates that Mr. Elliott, in all likelihood, takes free trips and free hotel stays from the travel industry-- and very much would like that to continue.

How Seriously Will Coronavirus Thin The Herd? What Can You Do About Not Being One Of The Ones Being Thinned?

Two or three weeks ago I explained why coronavirus fear had caused me to cancel a trip to the Dordogne region of France. Yesterday Scott McCartney was on the case for the Wall Street Journal: Smart Travel Planning In The Time Of Coronavirus. He began by asking, "Should you postpone or cancel travel because of coronavirus?" and replied "Yes, no and maybe." For him it's about geography-- a mistake. "For some destinations, the answer is a clear yes; others, a clear no. An increasing number are becoming a maybe, where it’s really a question of how much worry and hassle you want to pack into your trip." The disease is too rapid and virulent for there to be any negative answers, or even maybes. He's downplaying it and that's dangerous.

One threat: If you get the flu while traveling, you could end up quarantined somewhere because the symptoms in early stages are very similar to those of Covid-19.

“I think it’s a good time to assess personal risk tolerance,” says Henry Wu, director of Emory University’s TravelWell Center and assistant professor of infectious diseases at Emory University School of Medicine. “There’s a lot of potential for complications for travelers that may happen even if not high-risk for getting the disease.”

With the virus spreading beyond China to new countries, events and conferences are being canceled, airlines are expanding waivers to change reservations without penalty and more travelers are looking to postpone or cancel trips. The spread of the virus to Italy and South Korea changes travel considerations for many.

Travel does present greater risk because you typically encounter more people when traveling, public health experts say. They add that proper precautions-- frequently washing hands, avoiding touching unwashed hands to the face and liberal use of hand sanitizer-- reduce risk.

How to decide whether to go or not? Here’s a guide to help you make informed decisions:

Some Absolutes

First, if you’re sick, don’t travel. This rule applies all the time, but people routinely ignore it. Don’t do that in this climate unless you want to end up quarantined.

Some countries are or will be scanning passengers for increased body temperature. If you have a fever, you may be detained. Further, airline crews-- not to mention passengers-- are on heightened alert for anyone sneezing or coughing. In the U.S., the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has recommended flight crews isolate ill passengers. And it’s not negotiable: On an airplane, failure to comply with crew orders is a federal crime.

Second, no matter where you travel internationally, there is increased risk that travel may be disrupted. An outbreak can mean a city is sealed off, flights are canceled and travelers are quarantined. So best to plan ahead for serious disruption, just in case.

Take extra supplies of your medications with you. Take a supply of cold medicine and a thermometer. You might want to take work materials with you that you need after your return in case you end up stuck somewhere. Make sure you have health insurance documentation in case you end up sick. And have someone back home at the ready to help with emergency travel plans if you need to find a way home quickly. A travel agent may be a very good idea.

“As we learn more about the virus, governments can change overnight how they are responding,” says epidemiologist Jennifer Nuzzo of the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security.

Third, consider whether you have a higher risk of getting sick while traveling. Older people or those with underlying medical conditions may want to ground themselves, experts say.

Dr. Wu advises getting a flu shot before traveling if you haven’t already. It can take a week to become effective, but it’s not too late in the flu season to protect yourself.

Fourth, if you want to consider travel insurance, consider only “cancel for any reason” plans. These policies typically cost about 40% more than standard policies and typically reimburse about 75% of nonrefundable trip costs if you do cancel, says Megan Moncrief, chief marketing officer for Squaremouth, a travel insurance comparison service. That’s a lower payout than other plans, but it’s the only type of travel insurance that will help at this point.

If you have insurance you bought before the outbreak began, it likely will only cover you if you contract the virus. It might cover you if you get sick and your doctor certifies you shouldn’t travel during your planned itinerary. But travel insurance doesn’t cover fear.

“People are just nervous. They aren’t sure what’s going to happen. They simply don’t want to go anymore, don’t feel comfortable going, don’t feel safe going. But those aren’t covered reasons under a standard policy,” Ms. Moncrief says.

Now that the coronavirus outbreak is well known, policies you buy won’t cover it-- it’s a known hazard. It’s the same reason you can’t buy fire insurance as wildfires approach your house.

Some Options

There are some logical ways to make an informed choice about where to go. Use the CDC’s three-level warning system, which is frequently updated and considered reliable.

Level 3 is a high-level warning of serious outbreak and it’s a no-go. The CDC recommends avoiding all nonessential travel. If your destination is Level 3-- mainland China and South Korea, which was added to Level 3 on Tuesday-- the decision is simple.

Level 2 calls for practicing enhanced precautions. You can still go, but a good rule for any travelers nervous about the virus would be to postpone or cancel trips to Level 2 counties-- Italy, Iran and Japan as of Tuesday. Wait for things to resolve.

Level 1 is when a place has been put on watch. Right now, only Hong Kong is listed as Level 1 for coronavirus. But other countries are listed with “apparent community spread”: Singapore, Thailand, Taiwan and Vietnam. The CDC says virus spread isn’t sustained or widespread enough to warrant a travel health notice. But that may be notice enough for you. (Here’s a link to all CDC travel warnings.)

Even without notice, you may find public events canceled and venues closed. And closings to prevent congregating crowds may happen anywhere.

Public health experts say the biggest health risk for domestic travel now is the flu. No part of the U.S. is considered higher risk for coronavirus than any other. But Dr. Nuzzo of Johns Hopkins says she doesn’t believe authorities have a good handle on where the virus is and where it isn’t, including in the U.S., because many countries aren’t testing aggressively.

“I think this virus will turn up everywhere,” she says, because that’s how respiratory viruses tend to spread. She also notes that trying to stop the spread by restricting travel hasn’t worked so far.

Still, Dr. Nuzzo booked a family summer vacation recently to Mexico and plans to go, even though she expects the virus to show up in Mexico. “My risk tolerance is that life needs to go on,” she says.

Flights by themselves aren’t considered higher risk, except that they are crowded situations. Dr. Wu notes there have been no documented or confirmed cases of coronavirus transmission aboard an airplane. The World Health Organization says an airplane cabin by itself isn’t more conducive to spreading infection. But the proximity of passengers does matter.

The WHO says the virus is transmitted by droplets, and only lives on surfaces for short periods, perhaps 30 minutes. Other health groups have questioned that, suggesting it can live much longer on surfaces. If you are concerned, wipe down surfaces you are going to touch on airplanes or other public spaces, such as hotel rooms.

Paper surgical masks are effective at keeping you from spreading disease if you are sick, but not effective at blocking you from ingesting virus. For that, health experts recommend an N95 respirator—a heavy-duty mask.

Americans are not taking this seriously enough, in part because Trump just looks at it through the prism of his own reelection chances and has been foolishly and selfishly playing it down. Tuesday, Australian virologists Ian Mackay and Katherine Arden noted that coronavirus is now showing up in 30 countries outside China and that the rapid spread indicates that "the virus is ahead of our efforts to contain it." They wrote that their post "is based on the assumption that a pandemic will occur at some point and that Wave 1 will impact us, wherever we live, in the coming weeks and months... Planning now and doing something means we can control how well we cope with some of what may be coming."

If we enter into a pandemic, large numbers of people will be sick. Even if that’s just staying home with a fever and bad cough for a week. If COVID-19 is more severe, that will have a greater impact.

And when one family member is sick, one or more others may be involved in their care, removing more people from the workplace. The same effect may result if children being excluded from school. In a worst-case scenario, widespread illness may mean too few workers to drive trucks and trains, buses and taxis, run water treatment, electricity or other government services, teach at schools or staff hospitals. This didn’t happen in Australia during the 2009 H1N1 “swine flu” pandemic. But supply chains may be impacted in a number of ways.

Authorities will try to slow the speed of COVID-19 to prevent hospitals-- which are essential to care for the sickest people-- from being overloaded. Public gatherings-- sports events and concerts-- as well as schools and childcare centres, could be postponed or closed. All of which aims will be to keep people apart, making it harder for the virus to spread quickly. Again, these decisions will differ between places, and may not even have to be made.

...As long as the virus circulates, and as long as you have never been infected, you are susceptible to infection resulting in COVID-19. This will be the case for the rest of your life until you have been infected which should protect you from severe disease. COVID-19 is mostly a mild illness but can cause severe pneumonia in approximately 20% of cases, leading to hospitalization for weeks and in a portion of these cases, to death.

• Stay at least 2m away from obviously sick people.
• We’re trying to avoid receiving a cough/sneeze in the face, shaking hands, or being in the range of droplet splatter and the “drop zone”
• Wash your hands for 20 seconds & more frequently than you do now
Soap and water and then dry, or an alcohol-based hand rub, and air dry
• Try not to touch your face.
There is a chance your unwashed fingers will have a virus on them and if you touch/rub your mouth, nose or eyes, you may introduce the virus and accidentally infect yourself. Practice this; get others to call you out when you forget. Make it a game.

While a mask seems like a good idea, and when used by professionals it does protect from infection, it can actually give inexperienced users a false sense of security. There isn’t a lot of good evidence (still!) that shows a mask to reliably prevent infection when worn by the public at large. They are useful to put on a sick person to reduce their spreading of the virus.

If you or a loved one becomes sick, follow the practices of the day. Call ahead before going to a Doctor, fever clinic or hospital and get advice on what to do. Hopefully, this message is already out there and we’ll see it more once transmission of the virus is widespread.

Reducing our risk of running short of food and important goods-- the 2-week list

What we’re looking at here is trying to minimize the impact of any shortages of goods we rely on having at the grocery store or at the end of an online ordering system.

...Below we list things we’ll need to have in case of a more major interruption to supply; a stock that will last 2 weeks. Some of these things will last much longer and include items that may not be a top priority for authorities to keep stocked:

• Extra prescription medications, asthma relief inhalers Some of these may be a problem, so talk to your doctor soon.
• Over-the-counter anti-fever and pain medications paracetamol and ibuprofen can go a long way to making us feel less sick
• Feminine hygiene products
• Family pack of toilet paper
• Vitamins
In case food shortages limit the variety in your diet
• Alcohol-containing hand rub
• Soap
• Household cleaning agents
Bleach, floor cleaner, toilet cleaner, surface cleaning spray, laundry detergent
• Tissues, paper towel
• Cereals, grains, beans, lentils, pasta
• Tinned food – fish, vegetables, fruit
• Oil, spices and flavours
• Dried fruit and nuts
• Ultra-heat treated or powdered milk
Ian is not drinking black coffee, no matter what
• Batteries for anything that need batteries
• Think about elderly relative’s needs
Their medications, pets, pandemic stash, plans for care
• Pet food and care
Dry and tinned food, litter tray liners, medicines, anti-flea drops
• Soft drink or candy/chocolate for treats

In a more severe pandemic, supply chain issues may mean fresh food becomes harder to get. So this list is an add-on to the one above, and its items should be the last things to buy if you have a hint of when supplies might slow or stop for a (hopefully short) time.

• Bread, wraps
• Meat for freezing
• Milk
• Eggs
• Yogurt
• Vegetables, fruit
• Fuel for your car

To date, looking at data from China (below), most (94%) deaths from COVID-19 have occurred in those aged over 50 years of age, with more than half (51%) in those aged over 70 years. The age group most at risk for death are those aged over 80 years.

Older people with comorbidities have experienced higher proportions of death than those with no comorbidities. Most cases identified in mainland China-- 80.9% of them-- even with the more severe case catching that China has favoured-- have been classified as mild. This is good news although 20% is still a lot of “severe” disease. Mild cases recover in about 2 weeks from the time they showed symptoms, while severe cases can take 3 to 6 weeks to recover.

Because of this, we may see a big impact on our elderly population, both in terms of hospitalisation and death. Residential aged care is likely to suffer and visits to loved ones may be restricted to keep them safe. If you have loved ones in an aged care facility, ask the facility about its plans for keeping their residents safe from flu (a similar situation) and whether they have thought about what they will do if SARS-CoV-2 is spreading widely.

It will be important to check that your parents and grandparents have prepared a Will and have considered an Enduring Power of Attorney in case they are unable to make care-based decisions for themselves. These aren’t fun to organise or think about, but they’re important whether we see a COVID-19 pandemic or not, so just use this as a reminder to get it done.

And when does it become too dangerous to go out to eat in restaurants? Yesterday? Much the way Trevor Noah did last night, but writing for Bloomberg News this morning, Jonathan Bernstein explained that Trump's coronavirus press conference wasn't exactly reassuring to anyone with half a brain. "Yes, he used his usual juvenile nicknames and petty insults for the Democrats he’s going to have to work with. Yes, he blamed the stock market drop on Monday and Tuesday on-- wait for it-- the Democratic debate Tuesday night. Yes, he repeatedly praised himself for solving the problem (setting up a potential 'Mission Accomplished' moment in the likely event the pandemic spreads in the U.S.) and had administration officials praise him as well. All entirely inappropriate and counterproductive. But it was worse than that. He was at times barely coherent even for someone who knew what he was trying to say. I can’t imagine what it was like for the bulk of the nation, folks who only sometimes pay attention to politics but might have tuned in because they want to be reassured that the government is on top of the problem. He must have been almost completely incomprehensible to them, rambling on about how he had recently discovered that the flu can kill lots of people and referring in a totally oblique way to the budget requests he had made to Congress and their reaction. He occasionally said something that sort of made sense, but mostly? Not. Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel’s reaction was what I thought: 'I found most of what he said incoherent.' At no time over the course of the news conference did Trump supply evidence that he had any idea what he was talking about." Yeah... we're all going to die-- although Trump supporters will probably die first; at least there's that.